| __________________________________________ |
| HDTFA: Historical Data Test Forecast Accuracy |
Historical Data Test Forecast Accuracy (HDTFA) represents the average accuracy of
the forecasting methods when tested against historical data.
For example, a HDTFA of .5% for an interest rate forecast suggests that interest rates
will be, on average, within .5% of the forecast. So, an interest rate forecast of 10%
with a HDTFA of .5% suggests that rates will, on average, be between 9.5% and
10.5% during the target month. (10% - .5% = 9.5%; 10% + .5% = 10.5%)
the forecasting methods when tested against historical data.
For example, a HDTFA of .5% for an interest rate forecast suggests that interest rates
will be, on average, within .5% of the forecast. So, an interest rate forecast of 10%
with a HDTFA of .5% suggests that rates will, on average, be between 9.5% and
10.5% during the target month. (10% - .5% = 9.5%; 10% + .5% = 10.5%)
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