Commentary 12802
April, 2013 Data:
The forecast for Housing Starts is in the table at the top of this page. All
Housing Starts Data presented herein refers to the Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Housing Starts will be roughly 965
thousand units next May. The table shows a HDTFA of 232 thousand units
which suggests that housing starts in May, 2014 could easily fall between 1197
thousand units and 733 thousand units. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found by clicking the Economic Forecast link at the
top of this page.
Annual Housing Starts
Last Month 853
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 854
Last 5 Years 679
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1221
Last 20 Years 1379
Housing Starts (Annual Rates): Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months) 1021 (March, 2013)
Low (Last 12 Months) 711 (May, 2012)
High (Since January, 1959) 2494 (January, 1972)
Low (Since January, 1959) 478 (April, 2009)
Housing Starts for April, 2013 were 853 thousand units. That's 168 thousand
units lower than the March, 2013 level which was 1021 thousand units. It is 99
thousand units higher than the April, 2012 level of 754 thousand units. The fall
in Housing Starts from March to April indicates that the short term Housing
Starts trend has been down. If that trend continues, we should see a housing
starts level in May, 2013 that is close to 685 thousand units.
Over the last year housing starts have averaged 854 thousand units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate). The average level over the last 10 years was
1221 thousand units. Lower Housing Starts over the last 12 months compared
to the average levels over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Housing Starts is down. Expectations for housing starts should
be adjusted accordingly.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Housing Starts data back to
January, 1959. Average housing starts during that period of history was 1464
thousand units per month. The highest level was 2494 thousand units. The
lowest level was 478 thousand units. The high was attained in January, of
1972. The low was achieved in April of 2009.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for Housing Starts. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on Housing
Starts. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight
into the historical trends of the financial markets. The data table above
presents the history of US Housing Starts in numerical format.
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Monthly New US Privately Owned Housing Starts is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month
is shown in green (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Other links related to this economic indicator
are below.
New US Privately Owned Housing Starts - 5 Year History
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New US Privately Owned Housing Starts Forecast
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Forecast for New US Privately Owned Housing Starts for the target month indicated. Measurement is in Thousands of Units (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
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Updated Friday, May 24, 2013.
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New US Housing Starts Forecast
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Historical New Housing Starts
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1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
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1535 1256 1312 1459 1588 1540 1469 1167 1285 1504 1487 1435 2036 2361 2044 1332
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
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1160 1535 1962 2001 1717 1300 1096 1057 1705 1766 1741 1812 1631 1488 1382 1203
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1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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1009 1201 1292 1446 1361 1469 1475 1621 1647 1573 1601 1710 1854 1950 2073 1812
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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1341 903 553 585 611 781
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Average Monthly New Housing Starts are shown in this table: 1959 to present (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
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US Housing Starts Analysis & Forecast
Forecasts, charts and analysis...
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Financial Uncertainty & Mental Toughness
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