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Market Commentary  19185
April, 2015 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the U.S. Dollar is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar will
be roughly 118.53 TWI to the USD. The table shows a HDTFA of 7.12 which
suggests that the May, 2016 currency exchange rate could easily fall between
125.65 and 111.40 TWI/USD

TWI
TWI is the Trade Weighted Exchange Index. The Trade Weighted Exchange
Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. Dollar
against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading Partners
published by the Economic Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis. TWI is used as an abbreviation for the Trade Weighted Exchange
Index at Forecast-Chart.com since the formal abbreviation (TWEXBMTH) is a bit
cumbersome. The TWI is useful for evaluating the overall conversion value of
the U.S. Dollar relative to the world's currencies. The TWI includes the
currencies of the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United Kingdom,
Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand,
Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden,
Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.





4 YEAR FORECAST
Will the U.S. Dollar be higher or lower 4 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 72% that the U.S. Dollar will be lower in 4 years...
(Lower than the basket of world currencies represented by the TWI as
described above). The table shows a probability of 28% that the U.S. Dollar will
be higher in 4 years (April, 2019 TWI/USD compared to the April, 2015
TWI/USD). 42 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 4 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 4 Year Forecast for the U.S. Dollar.  The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      28%
Down                  72%

All data and calculations on this page are based on the average daily rate per
calendar month for TWI/USD. Links to Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar relative to
fifteen individual currencies may be found by clicking the Currency Exchange
Forecast link at the top of this page.





HISTORICAL EXCHANGE RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        108.07
Average (Last 10 Years)          103.42
High (Last 12 Months)             116.29   (March, 2015)
Low (Last 12 Months)              102.13   (July, 2014)
High (Since January, 1973)      129.69   (February, 2002)
Low (Since January, 1973)       30.64   (July, 1973)





HIGHLIGHTS
The U.S. Dollar exchange rate for April, 2015 averaged 115.08 TWI to USD.
That's 121.1 basis points lower than the March, 2015 rate of 116.29, and 1252
basis points higher than the April, 2014 rate of 102.56.  The fall in the TWI/USD
exchange rate from March to April provides evidence that the short term trend
in TWI/USD is down. In other words, a weakening of the US Dollar against the
TWI in the short term. If that trend continues in the world currency market, we
should see an average daily rate in May, 2015 that is close to 113.86.

The average U.S. Dollar conversion rate over the last 12 months was 108.07.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 103.42. The minimal change in the
TWIs to dollars exchange rate over the last 12 months compared to average
conversion rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term
trend in TWI/USD is relatively flat.

The highest currency rate for TWI/USD over the last 12 months was 116.29.
The lowest was 102.13. The market high was attained in March, 2015. The
market low was achieved in July, 2014.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the TWI data back to January,
1973. The average exchange value during that period of history was 80.21
TWI/USD. The highest rate was 129.69. The lowest was 30.64.  The market
high was attained in February, of 2002. The market low was achieved in July of
1973. Recent rates experienced in April of 2015 are high relative to the
historical 80.21 average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the U.S. Dollar. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the TWI.
Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of the financial markets. The table above presents additional
historical information on the TWI. Rate data is presented on an annual basis.









                                                                                           













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The currency exchange value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is shown
in gray (average daily rate per calendar month). The
Trade Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted
average of the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading partners. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. If the line in the chart is falling (left to right), the US Dollar has weakened,
causing...
U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate - 5 Year History
U.S.  Dollar (USD) Currency Exchange Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Currency exchange rate forecast for the value
of the U.S. Dollar, relative to the currencies of a
broad group of major U.S. Trading partners for
the target month indicated,  shown in
TWI per  
U.S. Dollar.
May 2016
119
7.1
Updated Friday, May 22, 2015.
U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate Forecast
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
85
Trade Weighted Exchange Index Forecast
Recent Currency Exchange Rates
Historical U.S. Dollar Conversion Rate Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
31.70
32.58
33.68
35.83
36.88
35.09
35.36
36.35
40.34
46.83
52.81
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
60.11
67.16
62.35
60.43
60.92
66.90
71.41
74.35
76.91
83.78
90.87
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
92.65
97.46
104.43
115.89
116.04
119.45
125.93
126.68
119.11
113.63
110.72
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
108.53
103.40
99.83
105.88
101.97
97.29
99.82
101.12
104.15
Average annual currency exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar according to the Trade
Weighted Exchange Index  is shown in this table: 1973 to present.
Forecast & Current Analysis: U.S. Dollar (USD)
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1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
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