Fairbanks, AK - House Price Index (HPI) - 21 Year Chart
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Fairbanks Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Fairbanks, AK single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100. Updated Friday, December 28, 2012.
See Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates below.
Fairbanks Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
1/75 1/1980 1/1985 1/1990 1/1995 1/2000 1/2005 1/2010 1/15
Commentary 13219
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Statistics: Fairbanks, Alaska
Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
12 Month Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 74%
Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Fairbanks housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2013 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Fairbanks is 74%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 74% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fairbanks is 74% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2013 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2012. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fairbanks
Real Estate Market Forecast.
3 Year Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 78%
The forecast for the trend in the Fairbanks housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast
for Fairbanks is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Fairbanks is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2012. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fairbanks
Real Estate Market Forecast.
Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Data: Fairbanks, Alaska
Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter 0.38%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4%
Last 5 Years 0%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Last 20 Years 97%
Decline From All Time High 0.41%
Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1983 n/a
1984 n/a
1985 n/a
1986 n/a
1987 -21.61%
1988 23.61%
1989 -33.07%
1990 35.90%
1991 -5.59%
1992 14.72%
1993 5.93%
1994 3.06%
1995 3.00%
1996 5.98%
1997 3.95%
1998 1.96%
1999 -0.58%
2000 2.49%
2001 3.43%
2002 5.56%
2003 8.64%
2004 7.12%
2005 8.40%
2006 6.50%
2007 4.24%
2008 -1.97%
2009 -0.61%
2010 0.92%
2011 1.37%
2012 0.43%
Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter 0.38% Rank: 207 of 381 (45th Percentile)
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4% Rank: 180 of 381 (52nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years 0% Rank: 86 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 40% Rank: 29 of 381 (92nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years 97% Rank: 88 of 368 (76th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High 0.41%
Home Price appreciation rates for Fairbanks, AK are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Fairbanks appreciated 0.38% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Fairbanks Real Estate Market was ranked 207th out of 381
metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Fairbanks was in the 45th
percentile. So Fairbanks, AK performed better in the Last Quarter than 45% of
the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.
Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Statistics: Fairbanks, Alaska
The all time high in the Fairbanks Home Price Index was 179.8 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2008. The 4th Quarter, 2012 index value was 179.1. That's a
decline of 0.74 points or 0.41% below the Fairbanks Home Price Index all time
high. The Home Price Index indicates that the Fairbanks Market is up 40% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market have
gained 0.43% over the last 12 months.
The 4th Quarter index value was 0.67 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2012
index value of 178.40, resulting in a 0.38% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Fairbanks Market.
The Fairbanks Home Price Index has increased for the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 11 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is
Tallahassee, FL, with declines in the last 5 consecutive quarters.
The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market
was 36% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1990. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Fairbanks Market was -33% in the twelve
months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1989.
The highest home appreciation in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 47% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
1992. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Fairbanks
Market was -35% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 1989.
This page provides a long term graph of the Fairbanks Home Price Index
(above). For information about Alaska home values, look at the links under that
chart. One link opens a forecast for home appreciation rates in the state of
Alaska. Another link opens the home price index chart for Alaska. Just one
glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this
page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about
Fairbanks Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.
Historical data on the Fairbanks Home Price Index is available back to the 1st
Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Fairbanks Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.
Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Fairbanks Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.
Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Data: Fairbanks, Alaska
The appreciation of Fairbanks Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed. Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.
Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2012, Fairbanks Home Prices had a rank of 207, with
appreciation of 0.38%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of 4.55%. The worst market during
that period was Hattiesburg, MS, with appreciation of -4.02%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.47%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.54%.
Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Fairbanks Home Prices had a rank of 180, with
appreciation during the year of 0.43%. The top performing market during the
last year was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of 13.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Gainesville, FL, with appreciation of -6.8%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was 0.27%. The
average appreciation was 0.31%.
Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2012, Fairbanks Home Prices
ranked 86, with a total appreciation of 0.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of 24%.
The worst market during that period was Las Vegas, NV, with appreciation of
-54%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -9%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -12%.
Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2012, Fairbanks Home Prices
had a rank of 29, with appreciation during the decade of 40%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of
104%. The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit,
MI, with appreciation of -31%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 18%.
Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2012, Fairbanks Home Prices
had a rank of 88, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 97%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 210%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 7%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 78%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 80%.
Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Fairbanks Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Fairbanks. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)
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