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Market Commentary 31529
June, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the U.S. Dollar is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar will
be roughly 131.40 TWI to the USD. The table shows a HDTFA of 6.92 which
suggests that the July, 2020 currency exchange rate could easily fall between
138.32 and 124.47 TWI/USD
TWI
The symbol for the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is TWI. The Trade
Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value
of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading
Partners published by the Economic Research Division of the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis. TWI is used as an abbreviation for the Trade Weighted
Exchange Index at Forecast-Chart.com since the formal abbreviation
(TWEXBMTH) is a bit cumbersome. The TWI is useful for evaluating the overall
conversion value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the world's currencies. The TWI
includes the currencies of the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United
Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland,
Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.
4 YEAR FORECAST
Will the U.S. Dollar be higher or lower 4 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 63% that the U.S. Dollar will be higher in 4 years...
(Higher than the basket of world currencies represented by the TWI as
described above). The table shows a probability of 37% that the U.S. Dollar will
be lower in 4 years (June, 2023 TWI/USD compared to the June, 2019
TWI/USD). 47 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 4 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 4 Year Forecast for the U.S. Dollar. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.
Forecast Probability
Up 63%
Down 37%
All data and calculations on this page are based on the average daily rate per
calendar month for TWI/USD. Links to Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar relative to
fifteen individual currencies may be found by clicking the Currency Exchange
Forecast link at the top of this page.
HISTORICAL EXCHANGE RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 126.99
Average (Last 10 Years) 110.41
High (Last 12 Months) 128.93 (May, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 124.09 (July, 2018)
High (Since January, 1973) 129.69 (February, 2002)
Low (Since January, 1973) 30.64 (July, 1973)
HIGHLIGHTS
The U.S. Dollar exchange rate for June, 2019 averaged 127.57 TWI to USD.
That's 136.0 basis points lower than the May, 2019 rate of 128.93, and 412
basis points higher than the June, 2018 rate of 123.45. The fall in the TWI/USD
exchange rate from May to June provides evidence that the short term trend in
TWI/USD is down. In other words, a weakening of the US Dollar against the TWI
in the short term. If that trend continues in the world currency market, we should
see an average daily rate in July, 2019 that is close to 126.21.
The average U.S. Dollar conversion rate over the last 12 months was 126.99.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 110.41. A higher TWIs to U.S.
Dollars exchange rate over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in TWI/USD
is up (strengthening US Dollar against the TWI).
The highest currency rate for TWI/USD over the last 12 months was 128.93.
The lowest was 124.09. The market high was attained in May, 2019. The
market low was achieved in July, 2018.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the TWI data back to January,
1973. The average exchange value during that period of history was 84.01
TWI/USD. The highest rate was 129.69. The lowest was 30.64. The market
high was attained in February, of 2002. The market low was achieved in July of
1973. Recent rates experienced in June of 2019 are high relative to the
historical 84.01 average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the U.S. Dollar. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the TWI.
Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of the financial markets. The table above presents additional
historical information on the TWI. Rate data is presented on an annual basis.
Source of Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad [TWEXBMTH], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXBMTH
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
June, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the U.S. Dollar is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar will
be roughly 131.40 TWI to the USD. The table shows a HDTFA of 6.92 which
suggests that the July, 2020 currency exchange rate could easily fall between
138.32 and 124.47 TWI/USD
TWI
The symbol for the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is TWI. The Trade
Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value
of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading
Partners published by the Economic Research Division of the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis. TWI is used as an abbreviation for the Trade Weighted
Exchange Index at Forecast-Chart.com since the formal abbreviation
(TWEXBMTH) is a bit cumbersome. The TWI is useful for evaluating the overall
conversion value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the world's currencies. The TWI
includes the currencies of the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United
Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland,
Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.
4 YEAR FORECAST
Will the U.S. Dollar be higher or lower 4 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 63% that the U.S. Dollar will be higher in 4 years...
(Higher than the basket of world currencies represented by the TWI as
described above). The table shows a probability of 37% that the U.S. Dollar will
be lower in 4 years (June, 2023 TWI/USD compared to the June, 2019
TWI/USD). 47 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 4 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 4 Year Forecast for the U.S. Dollar. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.
Forecast Probability
Up 63%
Down 37%
All data and calculations on this page are based on the average daily rate per
calendar month for TWI/USD. Links to Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar relative to
fifteen individual currencies may be found by clicking the Currency Exchange
Forecast link at the top of this page.
HISTORICAL EXCHANGE RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 126.99
Average (Last 10 Years) 110.41
High (Last 12 Months) 128.93 (May, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 124.09 (July, 2018)
High (Since January, 1973) 129.69 (February, 2002)
Low (Since January, 1973) 30.64 (July, 1973)
HIGHLIGHTS
The U.S. Dollar exchange rate for June, 2019 averaged 127.57 TWI to USD.
That's 136.0 basis points lower than the May, 2019 rate of 128.93, and 412
basis points higher than the June, 2018 rate of 123.45. The fall in the TWI/USD
exchange rate from May to June provides evidence that the short term trend in
TWI/USD is down. In other words, a weakening of the US Dollar against the TWI
in the short term. If that trend continues in the world currency market, we should
see an average daily rate in July, 2019 that is close to 126.21.
The average U.S. Dollar conversion rate over the last 12 months was 126.99.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 110.41. A higher TWIs to U.S.
Dollars exchange rate over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in TWI/USD
is up (strengthening US Dollar against the TWI).
The highest currency rate for TWI/USD over the last 12 months was 128.93.
The lowest was 124.09. The market high was attained in May, 2019. The
market low was achieved in July, 2018.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the TWI data back to January,
1973. The average exchange value during that period of history was 84.01
TWI/USD. The highest rate was 129.69. The lowest was 30.64. The market
high was attained in February, of 2002. The market low was achieved in July of
1973. Recent rates experienced in June of 2019 are high relative to the
historical 84.01 average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the U.S. Dollar. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the TWI.
Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of the financial markets. The table above presents additional
historical information on the TWI. Rate data is presented on an annual basis.
Source of Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad [TWEXBMTH], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXBMTH
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
The currency exchange value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is shown
in gray (average daily rate per calendar month). The Trade Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted
average of the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading partners. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. If the line in the chart is falling (left to right), the US Dollar has weakened,
causing...
in gray (average daily rate per calendar month). The Trade Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted
average of the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading partners. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. If the line in the chart is falling (left to right), the US Dollar has weakened,
causing...
| U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate - 5 Year History |
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| Trade Weighted Exchange Index Forecast Recent Currency Exchange Rates |
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Forecast & Current Analysis: U.S. Dollar (USD)
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