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Commentary  6092 a
APPAREL INFLATION RATE
November, 2015 Data:

The forecast for the US Apparel Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart is forecasting that Apparel Inflation Rates will be roughly
-4.38% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 1.74% which suggests
that the inflation rate for apparel prices in the US for the 12 months ending
December, 2016 could easily fall between -2.64% and -6.12%. Links to
Forecasts for many other economic indicators may be found at the top of this
page. The apparel price index used in this article is the Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers: Apparel, hereinafter referred as the apparel price
index.

Annual US Apparel Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       -61.7%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -4.8%
Last 5 Years                                     1.0%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5%
Last 20 Years                                   -0.2%

Annual Apparel Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      -0.5%   (March, 2015)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       -4.8%   (November, 2015)
High (Since September, 1941)            23.6%   (April, 1942)
Low (Since September, 1941)            -7.4%   (December, 1949)

The annual Apparel Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in November, 2015
was -4.83%. That's 2.92% percent lower than the 12 months ended in October,
2015 which inflated at a rate of -1.91%. It is 4.51% percent lower than the 12
months ended in November, 2014 which inflated at a rate of -0.32%.  The fall in
inflation rates from October to November indicates that the short term inflation
trend in apparel prices has been down. If that trend continues, we should see
an inflation rate for the 12 months ended in December, 2015 that is close to
-7.75%.

The USA Apparel Inflation Rate one year ago was -0.32%. Over the last year,
inflation in the apparel price index was -4.83%. The average rate over the last
10 years was 0.51%.  Lower inflation over the last 12 months compared to the
average inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Apparel Inflation Rate is down. Inflation expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart's historical research covers Apparel Inflation Rate data back to
September, 1941. The average annual inflation rate in apparel prices during
that period of history was 2.45%. The highest rate was 23.64%. The lowest rate
was -7.42%.  The high was attained in the 12 months ended in April of 1942.
The low was achieved in the 12 months ended in December of 1949. Recent
rates experienced in the 12 months ended in November of 2015 are low relative
to the historical 2.45% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Apparel Inflation
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Apparel Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart's long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.





















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Annual US Inflation Rate for Apparel is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Apparel). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this
economic indicator are below.
Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Apparel - 5 Year History
USA Apparel Inflation Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the USA Apparel Inflation Rate for the year
ending in the target month indicated based on the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
Apparel, not seasonally adjusted.
Dec 2016
-4.38%
1.74%
Updated Wednesday, January 27, 2016.
USA Apparel Inflation Forecast
-6%
-4%
-8%
Current Analysis & Forecast: US Apparel Inflation Rate
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17