Commentary  14474
Part 1: OVERALL INFLATION RATE
December, 2013 Data:

The forecast for the US Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that US Inflation Rates will be roughly 1.97%
over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.76% which suggests that US
inflation for the 12 months ending January, 2015 could easily fall between
2.73% and 1.21%. Links to Forecasts for many other economic indicators may
be found by clicking the Economic Forecast link at the top of this page.

Annual Inflation Rates
Last Month                                       -0.1%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5%
Last 5 Years                                     1.6%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4%
Last 20 Years                                   2.4%

Annual Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      2.0%   (February, 2013)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       1.0%   (October, 2013)
High (Since January, 1922)            19.7%   (March, 1947)
Low (Since January, 1922)            -11.1%   (January, 1922)

The annual US Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in December, 2013 was
1.50%. That's 0.26% percent higher than the 12 months ended in November,
2013 which inflated at a rate of 1.24%. It is 0.24% percent lower than the 12
months ended in December, 2012 which inflated at a rate of 1.74%.  The rise in
inflation rates from November to December indicates that the short term
inflation trend has been up. If that trend continues, we should see an inflation
rate for the 12 months ended in January, 2014 that is close to 1.77%.

The US Inflation Rate one year ago was 1.74%. Over the last year it was 1.50%.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 2.40%.  Lower inflation over the
last 12 months compared to the average inflation over the last 10 years serves
as an indicator that the long term trend in the US Inflation Rate is down. Inflation
expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers US Inflation Rate data back to
January, 1922. The average annual inflation rate during that period of history
was 3.03%. The highest rate was 19.67%. The lowest rate was -11.05%.  The
high was attained in the 12 months ended in March of 1947. The low was
achieved in the 12 months ended in January of 1922. Recent rates experienced
in the 12 months ended in December of 2013 are low relative to the historical
3.03% average.



Part 2: INFLATION RATE BY CATEGORY
December, 2013 Data:

There are many types of inflation that are included in the ANNUAL US
INFLATION RATE. There's Food, Apparel, Education, Energy, Transportation,
Medical Care, Recreation and Housing Inflation. All these are included in the
overall US Inflation rate.

Prices can be rising rapidly in certain inflation categories but actually falling in
others. If you are young and healthy, you may spend more heavily on
education, apparel, recreation or transportation. Seniors spend a greater
portion of their budget on medical care.

Your inflation rate could be much higher than the overall rate!

Falling home values may result in a declining cost of housing. But not for you, if
you already own your own home! Your mortgage payments don't decline just
because the value of your home has fallen.
Housing deflation may lower the overall inflation rate. In that case, inflation for a
homeowner may be much higher than the overall inflation rate!

The key question is this: WHAT IS YOUR INFLATION RATE?



INFLATION BY CATEGORY is shown below:

ANNUAL
RATE*
0.6%    Apparel Inflation
1.6%    Education & Communication Inflation
0.5%  Energy Inflation
1.1%   Food and Beverages Inflation
1.1%   Food Inflation
2.2%   Housing Inflation
2.0%    Medical Care Inflation
0.4%   Recreation Inflation
0.5%  Transportation Inflation

1.50%.  All Items

* Annual inflation rates for the 12 months ended in December, 2013.

FORECASTS & CHARTS FOR EACH INFLATION CATEGORY may be found by
clicking the link above titled Inflation Forecasts: Food, Medical Care, Housing
etc. The link is under the inflation chart, near the top of this page.



HISTORICAL INFLATION
Historical Inflation is shown below for the various inflation categories and many
inflation subcategories as well. Two time periods are covered.  Inflation over the
last ten years is shown first. Inflation over the last thirty years is shown next.
Gross rather than annual inflation is shown for the ten and thirty year historical
inflation statistics provided below. Therefore, the percent shown reflects the
governments estimates of the total change in prices for each category over the
entire time period instead of the annual rate of price change during each time
period. For example, the figures below indicate that Medical Care costs are now
316% higher than they were thirty years ago.



INFLATION OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS IS SHOWN BELOW:

3%          Apparel Inflation
24%         Education & Communication Inflation
76%         Energy Inflation
30%         Food Inflation
30%         Food and Beverages Inflation
24%         Housing Inflation
42%         Medical Care Inflation
7%           Recreation Inflation
37%         Transportation Inflation

26%         Alcoholic Beverage Inflation
25%         Commodity Inflation
29%         Dairy & Related Products Inflation
66%         Education Inflation
74%         Educational Books & Supplies Inflation
30%         Food at Home Inflation
14%           Footwear Inflation
28%         Fruit & Vegetable Inflation
149%       Fuel Oil & Other Fuels Inflation
124%       Gasoline Inflation
78%         Hospital & Related Services Inflation
-1%          Household Furnishings & Operations Inflation
40%         Meat, Poultry, Fish & Egg Inflation
6%          New Vehicle Inflation
-70%        Personal Computer & Peripheral Equipment  Inflation
28%         Public Transportation Inflation
30%         Rent of Primary Residence Inflation
88%         Tobacco & Smoking Product Inflation
66%         Tuition, Other School Fees & Child Care
7%          Used Car & Truck Inflation
68%         Water Sewer & Trash Collection Inflation

26%         Overall Inflation (for all items over the last 10 Years)



INFLATION OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS IS SHOWN BELOW:

Inflation
24%           Apparel Prices
134%         Energy Prices
139%         Food Prices
138%         Food and Beverage Prices
127%         Housing Prices
316%         Medical Care Prices
109%         Transportation Prices

134%         Alcoholic Beverage Prices
87%         Commodity Prices
117%         Dairy Prices & Related Products
495%         Educational Book & Supply Prices
136%         Food at Home Prices
35%           Footwear Prices
200%         Fruit & Vegetable Prices
240%         Fuel Oil & Other Fuel Prices
201%         Gasoline Prices
593%         Hospital Prices & Related Services
24%           Household Furnishings & Operations Prices
141%         Meat, Poultry, Fish & Egg Prices
46%           New Vehicle Prices
174%         Public Transportation Prices
167%         Rent Prices (Primary Residence)
737%         Tobacco Prices & Smoking Product Prices
567%         Tuition Prices & Other School & Child Care Fees
52%         Used Car & Truck Prices


130%         Overall Inflation (for all items over the last 30 Years)



All inflation statistics on this page are based on the price and cost estimates as
estimated by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers as published
by the U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Inflation Rate.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the US Inflation Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of US Inflation Rates in numerical
format.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.






































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CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the US Inflation Rate for the year ending in
the target month indicated (Consumer Price Index for
All Urban Consumers: All Items, not seasonally
adjusted.
December 2015
2.0%
.76%
Updated Tuesday, January 21, 2014.
Annual US Inflation Rate is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
All Items). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this economic
indicator are below.
CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items - 5 Year History
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0%
US Inflation Rate Forecast
Historical US Inflation Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
-11.1
-0.6
3.0
0.0
3.5
-2.2
-1.1
-1.2
0.0
-7.0
-10.1
-9.8
2.3
3.0
1.5
2.2
0.7
-1.4
-0.7
1.4
11.3
7.6
3.0
2.3
2.2
18.1
10.2
1.3
-2.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
8.1
4.3
0.4
1.1
-0.7
0.4
3.0
3.6
1.4
1.0
1.7
0.7
1.3
1.6
1.0
1.9
3.5
3.6
4.4
6.2
5.3
3.3
3.6
9.4
11.8
6.7
5.2
6.8
9.3
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
13.9
11.8
8.4
3.7
4.2
3.5
3.9
1.5
4.0
4.7
5.2
5.7
2.6
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.7
3.0
1.6
1.7
2.7
3.7
1.1
2.6
1.9
3.0
4.0
2.1
4.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.03
2.63
1.63
2.93
1.59
Annual US Inflation Rate is shown in this table: 1921 to present
-1%
-2%
Current Inflation News & Forecast: US Inflation Rate
-3%
US Inflation Rate Forecast
Forecasts, charts and analysis...
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