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Commentary  6092 e
ENERGY INFLATION RATE
November, 2015 Data:

The forecast for the US Energy Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart is forecasting that Energy Inflation Rates will be roughly
12.40% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 13.49% which
suggests that the inflation rate for energy prices in the US for the 12 months
ending December, 2016 could easily fall between 25.89% and -1.09%. Links to
Forecasts for many other economic indicators may be found at the top of this
page. The energy price index used in this article is the Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers: Energy, hereinafter referred as the energy price index.

Annual US Energy Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       -68.6%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -17.3%
Last 5 Years                                     0.0%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6%
Last 20 Years                                   4.1%

Annual Energy Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      -10.6%   (December, 2014)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       -19.6%   (January, 2015)
High (Since January, 1958)            47.1%   (March, 1980)
Low (Since January, 1958)            -28.1%   (July, 2009)

The annual Energy Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in November, 2015
was -17.34%. That's 0.20% percent lower than the 12 months ended in
October, 2015 which inflated at a rate of -17.14%. It is 12.50% percent lower
than the 12 months ended in November, 2014 which inflated at a rate of
-4.84%.  The sideways movement in inflation rates from October to November
indicates that the short term inflation trend in energy prices has been flat. If that
trend continues, we should see an inflation rate for the 12 months ended in
December, 2015 that is close to -17.53%.

The USA Energy Inflation Rate one year ago was -4.84%. Over the last year,
inflation in the energy price index was -17.34%. The average rate over the last
10 years was 2.62%.  Lower inflation over the last 12 months compared to the
average inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Energy Inflation Rate is down. Inflation expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart's historical research covers Energy Inflation Rate data back to
January, 1958. The average annual inflation rate in energy prices during that
period of history was 4.46%. The highest rate was 47.13%. The lowest rate was
-28.09%.  The high was attained in the 12 months ended in March of 1980. The
low was achieved in the 12 months ended in July of 2009. Recent rates
experienced in the 12 months ended in November of 2015 are low relative to
the historical 4.46% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Energy Inflation
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Energy Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart's long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.





















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Annual US Inflation Rate for Energy is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Energy). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this
economic indicator are below.
Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Energy - 5 Year History
USA Energy Inflation Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the USA Energy Inflation Rate for the year
ending in the target month indicated based on the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
Energy, not seasonally adjusted.
Dec 2016
12.40%
13.49%
Updated Wednesday, January 27, 2016.
USA Energy Inflation Forecast
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-30%
Current Analysis & Forecast: US Energy Inflation Rate
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17