Commentary  6092 e
December, 2017 Data:

FORECAST:           16.0%
TARGET MONTH: January,2019
.                               13.8%

Forecast for the USA Energy Inflation Rate for the year ending in the target
month indicated based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
Energy, not seasonally adjusted.

Forecast-Chart is forecasting that Energy Inflation Rates will be roughly 16.03%
over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 13.76% which suggests that
the inflation rate for energy prices in the US for the 12 months ending January,
2019 could easily fall between 29.79% and 2.27%. Links to Forecasts for many
other economic indicators may be found at the top of this page. The energy
price index used in this article is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Energy, hereinafter referred as the energy price index.

Annual US Energy Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       -16.0%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9%
Last 5 Years                                     -3.2%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8%
Last 20 Years                                   3.9%

Annual Energy Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      15.2%   (February, 2017)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       2.3%   (June, 2017)
High (Since January, 1958)            47.1%   (March, 1980)
Low (Since January, 1958)            -28.1%   (July, 2009)

The annual Energy Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in December, 2017
was 6.88%. That's 2.52% percent lower than the 12 months ended in
November, 2017 which inflated at a rate of 9.39%. It is 1.46% percent higher
than the 12 months ended in December, 2016 which inflated at a rate of
5.41%.  The fall in inflation rates from November to December indicates that the
short term inflation trend in energy prices has been down. If that trend
continues, we should see an inflation rate for the 12 months ended in January,
2018 that is close to 4.36%.

The USA Energy Inflation Rate one year ago was 5.41%. Over the last year,
inflation in the energy price index was 6.88%. The average rate over the last 10
years was 0.76%.  Higher inflation over the last 12 months compared to the
average inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Energy Inflation Rate is up. Inflation expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart's historical research covers Energy Inflation Rate data back to
January, 1958. The average annual inflation rate in energy prices during that
period of history was 4.32%. The highest rate was 47.13%. The lowest rate was
-28.09%.  The high was attained in the 12 months ended in March of 1980. The
low was achieved in the 12 months ended in July of 2009. Recent rates
experienced in the 12 months ended in December of 2017 are high relative to
the historical 4.32% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Energy Inflation
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Energy Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart's long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.

Updated Friday, January 12, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.

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Annual US Inflation Rate for Energy is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Energy). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this
economic indicator are below.
Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Energy - 5 Year History
USA Energy Inflation Forecast
Current Analysis & Forecast: US Energy Inflation Rate