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Dow Jones Average Return Rate (DJIA) vs. NASDAQ 100 Return Rate
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DJIA Return Rate
Simultaneous Change
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DJIA Return Rate
Subsequent Change
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1% Rise in NASDAQ 100 Return Rate over 1 Year
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1% Decline in NASDAQ 100 Return Rate in 1 Year
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Average Return Rate increase during that year and a 0.21% Dow Jones Average
Return Rate decline the following year.
It also indicates that a 1% NASDAQ 100 Return Rate decline over a 12 month period,
(from 5% to 4% for example) has typically been accompanied by a 0.41% Dow Jones
Average Return Rate decline during that year and a 0.24% Dow Jones Average
Return Rate increase the following year.
The center column shows the change in the Dow Jones Average Return Rate over 12
months, depending on whether the period experienced a rising or falling NASDAQ
100 Return Rate. The right column shows the change in the Dow Jones Average
Return Rate during the year following an increase or decrease in the NASDAQ 100
Return Rate.
The data history in the middle column shows a significant tendency for the
two rates to move in the same direction during the same time period.
The evidence for using the previous 12 month change in the NASDAQ 100
Return Rate to predict the future direction of the Dow Jones Average (DJIA)
Return Rate is weak (right column). That evidence indicates that the
direction of the rates are inversely related to each other. Therefore, a
change in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate suggests that the Dow Jones
Average (DJIA) Return Rate will move in the opposite direction of the
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate, but only to a limited extent.
Annual rates are shown in the graph and calculations.
How Do I Use This Information?
There are many investment theories that are well publicized in the financial press.
Even though little or no historical data may be offered as evidence for such theories,
many investors use them subconsciously, if not intentionally.
Example Theories: Rising Inflation is bad for the stock market. A booming housing
market is good for the S&P 500 stock index. A falling fed funds rate means that long
term interest rates will fall.
There are many such theories. In this site, long term investment and economic data
is tested against decades to determine whether a relationship actually exists or not.
This historical correlation provides a vital aid in interpreting the often confusing
behavior of the financial markets. The perspective gained may be the difference
between staying the course or being blown and tossed by every investment theory
that is popular at the moment. What the majority assumes to be true, often is not. In
the final analysis, readers are admonished to follow the evidence, wherever it leads.
This page tests the relationship between the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate and the Dow
Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate. Suppose you are making a business or
investment decision. Suppose again that the decision hinges on whether the NASDAQ
100 Return Rate and the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate tend to move in the
same or opposite directions. The data, graphs, and analysis above will enlighten you.
You'll discover whether they move with, inversely to, or independently of each other.
Suppose that the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate has risen sharply and that you need to
know what direction the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate is headed in the near
future. Does the recent increase in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate provide a clue
about the future direction of the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate? The data
history, graph, and analysis above will show you how the Dow Jones Average (DJIA)
Return Rate has performed after increases in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate. You'll
see if one indicator has been likely to signal a change in another. This is not intended
as a prediction, but merely as a clue to the future from the annals of history. No man
knows the future, unless he has the ability to control the future.
This site compares data series for interest rates, stock indexes, economic indicators,
currency exchange rates and real estate values. Suppose that you want to see how
stock indexes are influenced by interest rates or the value of the dollar. Click one of
the stock index links on the right side of any page. Links to our multi-series graphs
and correlation analysis may be found at the bottom-center of the stock index pages.
Formula for periods with a rising NASDAQ 100 Return Rate:
1) Change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate DURING periods with a
rising NASDAQ 100 Return Rate:
The abbreviated formula is: (Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate Change /
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate Rise) x 1% = Published Rate.
The complete formula is: [(Average change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return
Rate over all rolling 12 month periods with a rising NASDAQ 100 Return Rate) /
(Average Rise in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate over the same 12 month periods)] x
1% = Published Rate.
2) Change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate AFTER a rising NASDAQ
100 Return Rate:
The abbreviated formula is: (Subsequent Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate
Change / NASDAQ 100 Return Rate Rise) x 1% = Published Rate.
The complete formula is: [(Average change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return
Rate during the 12 months following any rolling 12 month base period with a rising
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate) / (Average Rise in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate over the
12 month base periods)] x 1% = Published Rate.
Formula for periods with a declining NASDAQ 100 Return Rate:
1) Change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate DURING periods with a
declining NASDAQ 100 Return Rate:
The abbreviated formula is: (Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate Change /
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate Decline) x -1% = Published Rate.
The complete formula is: [(Average change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return
Rate over all rolling 12 month periods with a declining NASDAQ 100 Return Rate) /
(Average decline in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate over the same 12 month periods)]
x -1% = Published Rate.
2) Change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate AFTER a decreasing
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate:
The abbreviated formula is: (Subsequent Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return Rate
Change / NASDAQ 100 Return Rate Decrease) x -1% = Published Rate.
The complete formula is: [(Average change in the Dow Jones Average (DJIA) Return
Rate during the 12 months following any rolling 12 month base period with a declining
NASDAQ 100 Return Rate) / (Average decline in the NASDAQ 100 Return Rate over
the 12 month base periods)] x -1% = Published Rate.
Rolling 12 Month Periods Defined:
Overlapping 12 month periods in a monthly data base.
For example:
In the 24 month period included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12
month periods. The first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February,
2000 - January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 month period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
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