San Francisco, CA - House Price Index (HPI) - 33 Year Chart
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San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA single
family home prices in logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100. Updated Friday,
December 28, 2012. See real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates below.
San Francisco Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
1/75 1/1980 1/1985 1/1990 1/1995 1/2000 1/2005 1/2010 1/15
Commentary 13414
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California
Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
12 Month Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 85%
Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the
12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2013 is UP. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for San Francisco is 85%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house
prices in San Francisco is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2013 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2012. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.
3 Year Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 82%
The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast
for San Francisco is 82%. In other words, when tested against historical data,
the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in San
Francisco is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2012. Check this page each quarter for updates to the San
Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.
Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Data: San Francisco, California
Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter 2.72%
Last Year 6.1%
Last 5 Years -15%
Last 10 Years 22%
Last 20 Years 139%
Decline From All Time High 17.79%
Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1983 6.75%
1984 5.37%
1985 10.11%
1986 12.00%
1987 18.27%
1988 25.35%
1989 16.59%
1990 -2.68%
1991 -1.62%
1992 -2.22%
1993 -2.05%
1994 -2.86%
1995 1.93%
1996 2.48%
1997 9.83%
1998 11.58%
1999 17.32%
2000 21.94%
2001 5.03%
2002 7.32%
2003 5.81%
2004 16.51%
2005 17.53%
2006 1.11%
2007 -2.47%
2008 -10.33%
2009 -6.53%
2010 -1.04%
2011 -3.06%
2012 6.06%
Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter 2.72% Rank: 26 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1% Rank: 11 of 381 (97th Percentile)
Last 5 Years -15% Rank: 239 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 22% Rank: 151 of 381 (60th Percentile)
Last 20 Years 139% Rank: 13 of 368 (96th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High 17.79%
Home Price appreciation rates for San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA
are shown above for five time periods. For example: San Francisco appreciated
2.72% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the San Francisco Real Estate Market
was ranked 26th out of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation.
San Francisco was in the 93rd percentile. So San Francisco, CA performed
better in the Last Quarter than 93% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in
Forecast-Chart.com.
Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California
The data and analysis on this page pertains to San Francisco-San
Mateo-Redwood City, CA, hereinafter referred to as "San Francisco". The all
time high in the San Francisco Home Price Index was 303.0 in the 3rd Quarter,
of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2012 index value was 249.1. That's a decline of
53.89 points or 17.79% below the San Francisco Home Price Index all time high.
The Home Price Index indicates that the San Francisco Market is up 22% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the San Francisco Real Estate Market have
gained 6.06% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 437%.
The 4th Quarter index value was 6.59 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2012
index value of 242.47, resulting in a 2.72% rise in the 4th Quarter for the San
Francisco Market.
The San Francisco Home Price Index has increased for the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 11 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is
Tallahassee, FL, with declines in the last 5 consecutive quarters.
The highest annual home appreciation rate in the San Francisco Real Estate
Market was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the San Francisco Market was -11% in
the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.
The highest home appreciation in the San Francisco Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1989. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the San
Francisco Market was -19% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2009.
This page provides a long term graph of the San Francisco Home Price Index
(above). For information about California home values, look at the links under
that chart. One link opens a forecast for home appreciation rates in the state of
California. Another link opens the home price index chart for California. Just
one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this
page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about San
Francisco Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.
Historical data on the San Francisco Home Price Index is available back to the
3rd Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the
House Price Index for the San Francisco Market. The terms House Price Index
and Home Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.
Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the San Francisco Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.
Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2012 Housing Data: San Francisco, California
The appreciation of San Francisco Home Prices relative to 380 other
metropolitan areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or
more cities. Five different time periods are reviewed. Each paragraph identifies
the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and median
performance for all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this
page pertains to San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA, hereinafter
referred to as "San Francisco".
Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2012, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 26,
with appreciation of 2.72%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of 4.55%. The worst market
during that period was Hattiesburg, MS, with appreciation of -4.02%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.47%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.54%.
Last Year:
During the last 12 months, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 11, with
appreciation during the year of 6.06%. The top performing market during the
last year was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of 13.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Gainesville, FL, with appreciation of -6.8%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was 0.27%. The
average appreciation was 0.31%.
Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2012, San Francisco Home
Prices ranked 239, with a total appreciation of -14.7%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Bismarck, ND, with appreciation of
24%. The worst market during that period was Las Vegas, NV, with appreciation
of -54%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -9%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -12%.
Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2012, San Francisco Home
Prices had a rank of 151, with appreciation during the decade of 22%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of
104%. The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit,
MI, with appreciation of -31%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 18%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 18%.
Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2012, San Francisco Home
Prices had a rank of 13, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of
139%. The top performing real estate market during the period was Casper,
WY, with appreciation of 210%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Las Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 7%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 78%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 80%.
Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the San Francisco Real
Estate Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for San Francisco. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period.
(Unless specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of appreciation.)
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