Commentary 31928
August, 2019 Data:
The forecast for Housing Starts is in the table at the top of this page. All
Housing Starts Data presented herein refers to the Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Housing Starts will be roughly
1210 thousand units next September. The table shows a HDTFA of 260
thousand units which suggests that housing starts in September, 2020 could
easily fall between 1470 thousand units and 949 thousand units. Links to
Forecasts for many other economic indicators may be found by clicking the
Economic Forecast link at the top of this page.
Annual Housing Starts
Last Month
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1223
Last 5 Years 1179
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 960
Last 20 Years 1269
Housing Starts (Annual Rates): Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months) 1291 (January, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 1142 (December, 2018)
High (Since January, 1959) 2494 (January, 1972)
Low (Since January, 1959) 478 (April, 2009)
Housing Starts for August, 2019 were 1191 thousand units. That's 50 thousand
units lower than the June, 2019 level which was 1241 thousand units. It is 7
thousand units higher than the August, 2018 level of 1184 thousand units. The
fall in Housing Starts from June to August indicates that the short term Housing
Starts trend has been down. If that trend continues, we should see a housing
starts level in September, 2019 that is close to 1141 thousand units.
Over the last year housing starts have averaged 1228 thousand units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate). The average level over the last 10 years was
960 thousand units. Higher Housing Starts over the last 12 months compared
to the average housing starts over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term trend in the Housing Starts is up. Expectations for housing starts
should be adjusted accordingly.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Housing Starts data back to
January, 1959. Average housing starts during that period of history was 1430
thousand units per month. The highest level was 2494 thousand units. The
lowest level was 478 thousand units. The high was attained in January, of
1972. The low was achieved in April of 2009.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for Housing Starts. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on Housing
Starts. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight
into the historical trends of the financial markets. The data table above
presents the history of US Housing Starts in numerical format.
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately
Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
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Monthly New US Privately Owned Housing Starts is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month
is shown in green (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Other links related to this economic indicator
are below.
New US Privately Owned Housing Starts - 5 Year History
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US New Housing Starts Forecast
Historical New Housing Starts
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1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
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1535 1256 1312 1459 1588 1540 1469 1167 1285 1504 1487 1435 2036 2361 2044 1332
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
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1160 1535 1962 2001 1717 1300 1096 1057 1705 1766 1741 1812 1631 1488 1382 1203
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1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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1009 1201 1292 1446 1361 1469 1475 1621 1647 1573 1601 1710 1854 1950 2073 1812
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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1341 903 553 585 611 781 930 1001 1099 1177 1202 1259
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Average Monthly New Housing Starts are shown in this table: 1959 to present (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
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US Housing Starts Analysis & Forecast
1/14
1/2016
1/2020
New US Housing Starts Forecast
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Target Month: Forecast: HDTFA:
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Forecast for New US Privately Owned Housing Starts for the target month indicated. Measurement is in Thousands of Units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). See Commentary below.
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