Commentary  6092 f
June, 2018 Data:

FORECAST:           3.3%
.                               4.4%

Forecast for the US Food Price Inflation Rate for the year ending in the target
month indicated based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
Food, not seasonally adjusted.

Forecast-Chart is forecasting that Food Inflation Rates will be roughly 3.31%
over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 4.43% which suggests that the
inflation rate for food prices in the US for the 12 months ending July, 2019 could
easily fall between 7.74% and -1.13%. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found at the top of this page. The food price index
used in this article is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food,
hereinafter referred as the food price index.

Annual US Food Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       0.6%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4%
Last 5 Years                                     1.3%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0%
Last 20 Years                                   2.3%

Annual Food Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      1.7%   (January, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       1.1%   (July, 2017)
High (Since January, 1914)            35.1%   (March, 1947)
Low (Since January, 1914)            -34.3%   (June, 1921)

The annual Food Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in June, 2018 was
1.43%. That's 0.20% percent higher than the 12 months ended in May, 2018
which inflated at a rate of 1.23%. It is 0.56% percent higher than the 12 months
ended in June, 2017 which inflated at a rate of 0.88%.  The sideways movement
in inflation rates from May to June indicates that the short term inflation trend in
food prices has been flat. If that trend continues, we should see an inflation rate
for the 12 months ended in July, 2018 that is close to 1.63%.

The USA Food Inflation Rate one year ago was 0.88%. Over the last year,
inflation in the food price index was 1.43%. The average rate over the last 10
years was 1.95%.  Lower inflation over the last 12 months compared to the
average inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Food Inflation Rate is down. Inflation expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart's historical research covers Food Inflation Rate data back to
January, 1914. The average annual inflation rate in food prices during that
period of history was 2.85%. The highest rate was 35.06%. The lowest rate was
-34.35%.  The high was attained in the 12 months ended in March of 1947. The
low was achieved in the 12 months ended in June of 1921. Recent rates
experienced in the 12 months ended in June of 2018 are low relative to the
historical 2.85% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Food Inflation
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Food Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart's long term
charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.

Updated Monday, August 13, 2018.
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Annual US Inflation Rate in Food Prices is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers: Food). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to
this economic indicator are below.
Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Food - 5 Year History
US Food Price Inflation Forecast
Current Analysis & Forecast: US Food Inflation Rate