.
Commentary  26667
December, 2017 Data:

The forecast for the US unemployment rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that National Unemployment Rates will
be roughly 3.81% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.54% which
suggests that US unemployment for the 12 months ending January, 2019 could
easily fall between 4.35% and 3.27%. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found by clicking the Economic Forecast link at the
top of this page.

Annual Unemployment Rates
Last Month                                        3.9%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.4%
Last 5 Years                                     5.6%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0%
Last 20 Years                                   5.9%

Historical Unemployment Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      5.1%   (January, 2017)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       3.9%   (October, 2017)
High (Since January, 1948)            10.8%   (November, 1982)
Low (Since January, 1948)               2.5%   (May, 1953)

The annual US unemployment rate in December, 2017 was 3.90%. That's the
same as the November, 2017 rate, It is 0.60% percent lower than the
December, 2016 unemployment rate of 4.50%.  The sideways movement in
unemployment rates from November to December indicates that the short term
employment trend has been flat. If that trend continues, we should see an
unemployment rate in January, 2018 that is close to 3.90%.

The National Unemployment Rate one year ago was 4.50%. The average rate
over the last year was 4.35%.  The average rate over the last 10 years was
6.99%.  Lower rates over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in the US
unemployment rate is down. Unemployment rate expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers US unemployment rate data
back to January, 1948. The average annual unemployment rate during that
period of history was 5.79%. The highest rate was 10.80%. The lowest rate was
2.50%.  The high was attained in November of 1982. The low was achieved in
May of 1953. Recent rates experienced in December of 2017 are low relative to
the historical 5.79% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a twelve month forecast for US
unemployment rates. For links to more information on US unemployment rates,
look at the links under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year
chart. Another opens a sixty year graph of the National Unemployment Rate.



UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY AGE AND SEX
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Unemployment Rates: Males 20 Years & Over
2017-01   5.0%
2017-02   4.9%
2017-03   4.6%
2017-04   3.8%
2017-05   3.7%
2017-06   3.8%
2017-07   3.9%
2017-08   3.9%
2017-09   3.6%
2017-10   3.5%
2017-11   3.5%
2017-12   3.9%

Unemployment Rates: Females 20 Years & Over
2017-01   4.5%
2017-02   4.3%
2017-03   3.9%
2017-04   3.7%
2017-05   3.8%
2017-06   4.2%
2017-07   4.5%
2017-08   4.5%
2017-09   3.9%
2017-10   3.5%
2017-11   3.5%
2017-12   3.4%

Unemployment Rates: Teenagers (16-19)
2017-01   15.4%
2017-02   14.9%
2017-03   13.1%
2017-04   13.4%
2017-05   14.3%
2017-06   16.0%
2017-07   13.7%
2017-08   13.5%
2017-09   12.8%
2017-10   13.4%
2017-11   15.7%
2017-12   11.9%

Unemployment Rates: Total U. S.
2017-01   5.1%
2017-02   4.9%
2017-03   4.6%
2017-04   4.1%
2017-05   4.1%
2017-06   4.5%
2017-07   4.6%
2017-08   4.5%
2017-09   4.1%
2017-10   3.9%
2017-11   3.9%
2017-12   3.9%



UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: States in ALPHABETICAL ORDER
November, 2017, Seasonally Adjusted
3.5%        Alabama
7.2%        Alaska
4.3%        Arizona
3.7%        Arkansas
4.6%        California
2.9%        Colorado
4.6%        Connecticut
4.7%        Delaware
6.4%        District Of Columbia
3.6%        Florida
4.3%        Georgia
2.0%        Hawaii
2.9%        Idaho
4.9%        Illinois
3.7%        Indiana
2.9%        Iowa
3.5%        Kansas
4.7%        Kentucky
4.7%        Louisiana
3.3%        Maine
3.9%        Maryland
3.6%        Massachusetts
4.6%        Michigan
3.1%        Minnesota
4.8%        Mississippi
3.4%        Missouri
4.0%        Montana
2.7%        Nebraska
5.0%        Nevada
2.7%        New Hampshire
5.1%        New Jersey
6.1%        New Mexico
4.7%        New York
4.3%        North Carolina
2.6%        North Dakota
4.8%        Ohio
4.2%        Oklahoma
4.2%        Oregon
4.6%        Pennsylvania
4.3%        Rhode Island
4.0%        South Carolina
3.5%        South Dakota
3.1%        Tennessee
3.8%        Texas
3.2%        Utah
2.9%        Vermont
3.7%        Virginia
4.5%        Washington
5.3%        West Virginia
3.2%        Wisconsin
4.3%        Wyoming






























STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: Lowest to Highest
November, 2017, Seasonally Adjusted
2.0%        Hawaii
2.6%        North Dakota
2.7%        Nebraska
2.7%        New Hampshire
2.9%        Colorado
2.9%        Idaho
2.9%        Iowa
2.9%        Vermont
3.1%        Minnesota
3.1%        Tennessee
3.2%        Utah
3.2%        Wisconsin
3.3%        Maine
3.4%        Missouri
3.5%        Alabama
3.5%        Kansas
3.5%        South Dakota
3.6%        Florida
3.6%        Massachusetts
3.7%        Arkansas
3.7%        Indiana
3.7%        Virginia
3.8%        Texas
3.9%        Maryland
4.0%        Montana
4.0%        South Carolina
4.2%        Oklahoma
4.2%        Oregon
4.3%        Arizona
4.3%        Georgia
4.3%        North Carolina
4.3%        Rhode Island
4.3%        Wyoming
4.5%        Washington
4.6%        California
4.6%        Connecticut
4.6%        Michigan
4.6%        Pennsylvania
4.7%        Delaware
4.7%        Kentucky
4.7%        Louisiana
4.7%        New York
4.8%        Mississippi
4.8%        Ohio
4.9%        Illinois
5.0%        Nevada
5.1%        New Jersey
5.3%        West Virginia
6.1%        New Mexico
6.4%        District Of Columbia
7.2%        Alaska






Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Monthly US National Unemployment rate is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is shown
in green. Other links related to this economic indicator are below.
US National Unemployment rate - 5 Year History
4%
5%
8%
US Unemployment Rate Forecast
2%
1%
7%
6%
0%
3%
US Unemployment Rate
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
3.8
6.1
5.2
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
5.5
6.7
5.6
5.6
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.8
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
3.6
3.5
5.0
6.0
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.9
7.2
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.2
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.9
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.7
5.8
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.6
4.6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
5.8
9.3
9.6
9.0
8.1
7.5
6.2
5.3
4.9
Average US Unemployment Rate is shown in this table: 1948 to present
Current Unemployment Rate Forecast:
US Economic Forecasts
     
  Inflation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Housing Starts
 
     
  Crude Oil Price
Natural Gas Price
 
     
  GDP
National Debt
 
     
Are You Unemployed?

A note of encouragement from the Editor:

After my son turned sixteen, I told him it was time
to get a job. It was summer and jobs were hard
to find. The unemployment rate was about 6%
at the time. But the unemployment rate for
teenagers was 19.5%! The summer is the
hardest time of the year for a teenager to find
a job. The outlook for a first time summer job
was dismal.

On a Monday, I told my 16 year old to apply
for ten jobs every day
until he got one.
He said he couldn't come up with even the first ten
places to apply.

He applied for ten jobs per day. He received a job
on
...

To hear the rest of the story, please click here.
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US Unemployment Rate Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
December, 2018
3.8%
0.5%
 
Forecast for US National Unemployment rate for the target month
indicated. Measurement is in Percent (not seasonally adjusted). See
commentary below.