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Market Commentary  29935
October, 2018 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 3 Month Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 3 Month US T-Bill
Yields will be roughly 2.68% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 2.90%
which suggests that the November, 2019 rate could easily fall between 5.58%
and 0.22%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.

HISTORICAL 3 MONTH TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        1.79%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          0.34%
High (Last 12 Months)             2.29% (October, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months)              1.25% (November, 2017)
High (Since January, 1982)    14.28% (February, 1982)
Low (Since January, 1982)      0.01% (December, 2011)

MONTHLY 3 MONTH TREASURY RATE
Nov, 2017     1.25%
Dec, 2017     1.34%
Jan,  2018     1.43%
Feb, 2018     1.59%
Mar, 2018     1.73%
Apr,  2018     1.79%
May, 2018     1.90%
Jun,  2018     1.94%
Jul,   2018     1.99%
Aug, 2018     2.07%
Sep, 2018     2.17%
Oct, 2018     2.29%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The 3 Month Treasury Yield for October, 2018 averaged 2.29%. That's 12
basis points higher than the September, 2018 rate of 2.17%, and 120 basis
points higher than the October, 2017 rate of 1.09%.  The rise in rates from
September to October indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If
that market trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in November,
2018 that is close to 2.41%.

The average 3 Month Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 1.79%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 0.34%.  Higher rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 3 Month Treasury Rates is up.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 2.29%. The lowest was
1.25%. The high annual rate was attained in October, 2018. The market low
was achieved in November, 2017.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 3 Month Treasury Rate data
back to January, 1982. The average annual rate during that period of history
was 3.96%. The highest rate was 14.28%. The lowest rate was 0.01%.  The
market high was attained in February of 1982. The market low was achieved in
December of 2011. Recent rates experienced in October of 2018 are low
relative to the historical 3.96% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 3 Month Treasury
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 3 Month US T-Bill Yields. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the 3 Month Treasury Bill
Yield in numerical format.











Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [GS3M], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS3M

SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.

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Average daily rate per month for 3 month treasury rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
3 Month Treasury Rate (T-Bill Yield) - 5 Year History
3 Month Treasury Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical 3 Month US Treasury Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
11.10
8.94
9.90
7.73
6.16
5.96
6.88
8.39
7.74
5.54
3.52
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.07
4.37
5.66
5.15
5.20
4.91
4.78
6.00
3.47
1.63
1.03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.40
3.21
4.85
4.47
1.39
0.15
0.14
0.05
0.09
0.06
0.03
2015
2016
2017
0.05
0.32
0.95
Average annual rates for the 3 Month Treasury are shown in this table: 1982 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: 3 Month Treasury Bill Yield
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
-1%
1/18
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
3 Month Treasury Bill Interest Rate Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
November, 2019
2.68%
2.90%
 
Forecast for the average daily interest rate for 3 month treasury bills
during the target month shown at the left. See Commentary below.