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Market Commentary 30778
February, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Fed Funds Interest Rate is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the Fed Funds Rate will be
roughly 2.40% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 1.06% which suggests
that the March, 2020 rate could easily fall between 3.46% and 1.34%.
Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking INTEREST
RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Fed Funds Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 50.2% that the Fed Funds Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 48.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (February, 2024 rate compared to the February, 2019 rate).
55 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the Fed Funds Rate. The forecast may
change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the
forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 50.2%
Down 48.9%
Unchanged 48.9%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Fed Funds Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of the Fed Funds
Interest Rate being ABOVE 3.12% in February, 2024 is 30%. The probability of
the Fed Funds Rate being BELOW 3.12% in February, 2024 is 70%.
Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
3.12% 30% 70%
3.00% 34% 66%
2.88% 37% 63%
2.76% 40% 60%
2.64% 43% 57%
2.52% 45% 55%
2.40% 50% 50%
2.28% 58% 42%
2.16% 63% 37%
2.04% 67% 33%
1.92% 72% 28%
1.80% 77% 23%
1.68% 81% 19%
HISTORICAL FED FUNDS RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 2.00%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 0.45%
High (Last 12 Months) 2.40% (January, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 1.51% (March, 2018)
High (Since July, 1954) 19.10% (June, 1981)
Low (Since July, 1954) 0.07% (February, 2014)
MONTHLY FED FUNDS RATE
Mar, 2018 1.510%
Apr, 2018 1.690%
May, 2018 1.700%
Jun, 2018 1.820%
Jul, 2018 1.910%
Aug, 2018 1.910%
Sep, 2018 1.950%
Oct, 2018 2.190%
Nov, 2018 2.200%
Dec, 2018 2.270%
Jan, 2019 2.400%
Feb, 2019 2.400%
HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed Funds Interest Rate for February, 2019 averaged 2.4%. That's the
same as the January, 2019 rate, and 98 basis points higher than the February,
2018 rate of 1.42%. The stability of rates from January to February indicates
that the short term rate trend has been flat. If that market trend continues, we
should see an average daily rate in March, 2019 that is close to 2.4%.
The average Fed Funds Rate for the last 12 months was 2.00%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 0.45%. Higher rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in the Fed Funds Rate is up.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 2.40%. The lowest was
1.51%. The high annual rate was attained in January, 2019. The market low
was achieved in March, 2018.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Fed Funds Rate data back to
July, 1954. The average annual rate during that period of history was 4.81%.
The highest rate was 19.10%. The lowest rate was 0.07%. The market high
was attained in June of 1981. The market low was achieved in February of
2014. Recent rates experienced in February of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 4.81% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Fed Funds Interest
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Fed Funds Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Fed Funds Rate in numerical
format.
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
Effective Federal Funds Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
February, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Fed Funds Interest Rate is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the Fed Funds Rate will be
roughly 2.40% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 1.06% which suggests
that the March, 2020 rate could easily fall between 3.46% and 1.34%.
Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking INTEREST
RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Fed Funds Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 50.2% that the Fed Funds Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 48.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (February, 2024 rate compared to the February, 2019 rate).
55 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the Fed Funds Rate. The forecast may
change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the
forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 50.2%
Down 48.9%
Unchanged 48.9%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Fed Funds Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of the Fed Funds
Interest Rate being ABOVE 3.12% in February, 2024 is 30%. The probability of
the Fed Funds Rate being BELOW 3.12% in February, 2024 is 70%.
Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
3.12% 30% 70%
3.00% 34% 66%
2.88% 37% 63%
2.76% 40% 60%
2.64% 43% 57%
2.52% 45% 55%
2.40% 50% 50%
2.28% 58% 42%
2.16% 63% 37%
2.04% 67% 33%
1.92% 72% 28%
1.80% 77% 23%
1.68% 81% 19%
HISTORICAL FED FUNDS RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 2.00%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 0.45%
High (Last 12 Months) 2.40% (January, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 1.51% (March, 2018)
High (Since July, 1954) 19.10% (June, 1981)
Low (Since July, 1954) 0.07% (February, 2014)
MONTHLY FED FUNDS RATE
Mar, 2018 1.510%
Apr, 2018 1.690%
May, 2018 1.700%
Jun, 2018 1.820%
Jul, 2018 1.910%
Aug, 2018 1.910%
Sep, 2018 1.950%
Oct, 2018 2.190%
Nov, 2018 2.200%
Dec, 2018 2.270%
Jan, 2019 2.400%
Feb, 2019 2.400%
HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed Funds Interest Rate for February, 2019 averaged 2.4%. That's the
same as the January, 2019 rate, and 98 basis points higher than the February,
2018 rate of 1.42%. The stability of rates from January to February indicates
that the short term rate trend has been flat. If that market trend continues, we
should see an average daily rate in March, 2019 that is close to 2.4%.
The average Fed Funds Rate for the last 12 months was 2.00%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 0.45%. Higher rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in the Fed Funds Rate is up.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 2.40%. The lowest was
1.51%. The high annual rate was attained in January, 2019. The market low
was achieved in March, 2018.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Fed Funds Rate data back to
July, 1954. The average annual rate during that period of history was 4.81%.
The highest rate was 19.10%. The lowest rate was 0.07%. The market high
was attained in June of 1981. The market low was achieved in February of
2014. Recent rates experienced in February of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 4.81% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Fed Funds Interest
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Fed Funds Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Fed Funds Rate in numerical
format.
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
Effective Federal Funds Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
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Average daily rate per month for Fed Funds is shown in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green.
shown in green.
| Fed Funds Interest Rate - 5 Year History |
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| Fed Funds Rate Forecast Compare US Interest Rates |
Current Analysis & Forecast: Fed Funds Interest Rate
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