6 Month CD Interest Rate Forecast (Certificate of Deposit)

Market Commentary 13177
April, 2013 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 6 Month CD Interest Rate is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 6 month Certificate of
Deposit Rates will be roughly 0.26% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of
0.09% which suggests that the May, 2014 rate could easily fall between 0.35%
and 0.18%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.

5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 6 Month Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate be higher or lower 5 years
from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 32.0% that the 6 Month CD Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 68.0% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2018 rate compared to the April, 2013 rate). 39 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the 6 Month Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate. The forecast may
change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the
forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      32%
Down                  68%
Unchanged              0%

5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 6 Month CD Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 6 Month CD
Interest Rates being ABOVE .34% in April, 2018 is 20%. The probability of 6
month Certificate of Deposit Rates being BELOW .34% in April, 2018 is 80%.
Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above Below
.34%            20%    80%
.33%            21%    79%
.31%            22%    78%
.30%            25%    75%
.29%            27%    73%
.27%            28%    72%
.26%            32%    68%
.25%            34%    66%
.23%            36%    64%
.22%            38%    62%
.21%            40%    60%
.20%            41%    59%
.18%            48%    52%

HISTORICAL 6 MONTH CD RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        0.36%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          2.21%
High (Last 12 Months)             0.48% (June, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months)              0.26% (April, 2013)
High (Since June, 1964)    17.98% (August, 1981)
Low (Since June, 1964)      0.26% (April, 2013)

MONTHLY 6 MONTH CD RATE
May, 2012     0.46%
Jun, 2012     0.48%
Jul,   2012     0.46%
Aug, 2012     0.40%
Sep, 2012     0.37%
Oct, 2012     0.35%
Nov, 2012     0.33%
Dec, 2012     0.32%
Jan, 2013     0.29%
Feb, 2013     0.28%
Mar, 2013     0.27%
Apr, 2013     0.26%

HIGHLIGHTS
The 6 Month CD Interest Rate for April, 2013 averaged 0.26%. That's 1 basis
points lower than the March, 2013 rate of 0.27%, and 21 basis points lower
than the April, 2012 rate of 0.47%. The fall in rates from March to April
indicates that the short term rate trend has been down. If that market trend
continues, we should see an average daily rate in May, 2013 that is close to
0.25%.

The average 6 Month CD Rate for the last 12 months was 0.36%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 2.21%. Lower rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in 6 Month CD Rates is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.48%. The lowest was
0.26%. The high annual rate was attained in June, 2012. The market low was
achieved in April, 2013.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 6 Month CD Rate data back to
June, 1964. The average annual rate during that period of history was 6.03%.
The highest rate was 17.98%. The lowest rate was 0.26%. The market high
was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in April of 2013.
Recent rates experienced in April of 2013 are low relative to the historical
6.03% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 6 Month CD Interest
Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on 6 month Certificate of Deposit Rates. Just one glance at our long term
charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the 6 Month Certificate of
Deposit Interest Rate in numerical format.

_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page    Contact U s     Privacy Policy    Terms of Use /Disclosure
                                      SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved