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Market Commentary  22472
June, 2016 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Fed Funds Interest Rate is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the Fed Funds Rate will be
roughly 0.38% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.15% which suggests
that the July, 2017 rate could easily fall between 0.53% and 0.24%. Forecasts
for many other interest rates may be found by clicking INTEREST RATE
FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Fed Funds Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 27.0% that the Fed Funds Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 72.5% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (June, 2021 rate compared to the June, 2016 rate). 52 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the Fed Funds Rate. The forecast may change substantially as a
result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      27%
Down                  72.5%
Unchanged              0.4%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Fed Funds Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of the Fed Funds
Interest Rate being ABOVE .49% in June, 2021 is 18%. The probability of the
Fed Funds Rate being BELOW .49% in June, 2021 is 82%. Probabilities for
various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
.49%            18%    82%
.48%            18%    82%
.46%            18%    82%
.44%            19%    81%
.42%            23%    77%
.40%            26%    74%
.38%            27%    73%
.36%            31%    69%
.34%            33%    67%
.32%            35%    65%
.30%            36%    64%
.29%            38%    62%
.27%            43%    57%



HISTORICAL FED FUNDS RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        0.26%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          1.07%
High (Last 12 Months)             0.38% (February, 2016)
Low (Last 12 Months)              0.12% (November, 2015)
High (Since July, 1954)    19.10% (June, 1981)
Low (Since July, 1954)      0.07% (February, 2014)

MONTHLY FED FUNDS RATE
Jul,   2015     0.130%
Aug, 2015     0.140%
Sep, 2015     0.140%
Oct, 2015     0.120%
Nov, 2015     0.120%
Dec, 2015     0.240%
Jan,  2016     0.340%
Feb, 2016     0.380%
Mar, 2016     0.360%
Apr,  2016     0.370%
May, 2016     0.370%
Jun,  2016     0.380%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed Funds Interest Rate for June, 2016 averaged 0.38%. That's 1 basis
points higher than the May, 2016 rate of 0.37%, and 25 basis points higher
than the June, 2015 rate of 0.13%.  The rise in rates from May to June indicates
that the short term rate trend has been up. If that market trend continues, we
should see an average daily rate in July, 2016 that is close to 0.39%.

The average Fed Funds Rate for the last 12 months was 0.26%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 1.07%.  Lower rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in the Fed Funds Rate is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.38%. The lowest was
0.12%. The high annual rate was attained in February, 2016. The market low
was achieved in November, 2015.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Fed Funds Rate data back to
July, 1954. The average annual rate during that period of history was 4.96%.
The highest rate was 19.10%. The lowest rate was 0.07%.  The market high
was attained in June of 1981. The market low was achieved in February of
2014. Recent rates experienced in June of 2016 are low relative to the historical
4.96% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Fed Funds Interest
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Fed Funds Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Fed Funds Rate in numerical
format.













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Historical Fed Funds Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1.79
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.31
3.22
1.96
2.71
3.18
3.50
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.20
7.18
4.66
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
4.43
8.73
10.50
5.82
5.05
5.54
7.93
11.19
13.36
16.38
12.26
9.09
10.23
8.10
6.81
6.66
7.57
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
9.22
8.10
5.69
3.52
3.02
4.20
5.84
5.30
5.46
5.35
4.97
6.24
3.89
1.67
1.13
1.35
3.21
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4.96
5.02
1.93
0.16
0.18
0.10
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.13
Average annual rates for the Fed Funds Rate are shown in this table: 1955 to present
Average daily rate per month for Fed Funds is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target month is
shown in green.
Fed Funds Interest Rate - 5 Year History
Fed Funds Interest Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the average daily interest rate for
Fed Funds during the target month shown at
the left.
June 2017
0.38%
.15%
Updated Monday, August 1, 2016.
Fed Funds Interest Rate Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Fed Funds Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Current Analysis & Forecast: Fed Funds Interest Rate
1/11
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/18