Market Commentary 13176
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Fed Funds Interest Rate is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the Fed Funds Rate will be
roughly 0.15% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.05% which suggests
that the May, 2014 rate could easily fall between 0.20% and 0.10%. Forecasts
for many other interest rates may be found by clicking INTEREST RATE
FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Fed Funds Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 27.6% that the Fed Funds Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 71.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2018 rate compared to the April, 2013 rate). 49 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast. Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the Fed Funds Rate. The forecast may change substantially as a
result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 27.6%
Down 71.9%
Unchanged 0.4%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Fed Funds Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of the Fed Funds
Interest Rate being ABOVE .20% in April, 2018 is 18%. The probability of the
Fed Funds Rate being BELOW .20% in April, 2018 is 82%. Probabilities for
various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
.20% 18% 82%
.19% 18% 82%
.18% 18% 82%
.17% 19% 81%
.17% 24% 76%
.16% 26% 74%
.15% 28% 72%
.14% 32% 68%
.14% 34% 66%
.13% 36% 64%
.12% 38% 62%
.11% 39% 61%
.11% 44% 56%
HISTORICAL FED FUNDS RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 0.15%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 1.78%
High (Last 12 Months) 0.16% (May, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months) 0.13% (August, 2012)
High (Since July, 1954) 19.10% (June, 1981)
Low (Since July, 1954) 0.07% (December, 2011)
MONTHLY FED FUNDS RATE
May, 2012 0.160%
Jun, 2012 0.160%
Jul, 2012 0.160%
Aug, 2012 0.130%
Sep, 2012 0.140%
Oct, 2012 0.160%
Nov, 2012 0.160%
Dec, 2012 0.160%
Jan, 2013 0.140%
Feb, 2013 0.150%
Mar, 2013 0.140%
Apr, 2013 0.150%
HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed Funds Interest Rate for April, 2013 averaged 0.15%. That's 1 basis
points higher than the March, 2013 rate of 0.14%, and 1 basis points higher
than the April, 2012 rate of 0.14%. The rise in rates from March to April
indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If that market trend
continues, we should see an average daily rate in May, 2013 that is close to
0.16%.
The average Fed Funds Rate for the last 12 months was 0.15%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 1.78%. Lower rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in the Fed Funds Rate is down.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.16%. The lowest was
0.13%. The high annual rate was attained in May, 2012. The market low was
achieved in August, 2012.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Fed Funds Rate data back to
July, 1954. The average annual rate during that period of history was 5.22%.
The highest rate was 19.10%. The lowest rate was 0.07%. The market high
was attained in June of 1981. The market low was achieved in December of
2011. Recent rates experienced in April of 2013 are low relative to the historical
5.22% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Fed Funds Interest
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Fed Funds Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Fed Funds Rate in numerical
format.
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April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Fed Funds Interest Rate is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the Fed Funds Rate will be
roughly 0.15% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.05% which suggests
that the May, 2014 rate could easily fall between 0.20% and 0.10%. Forecasts
for many other interest rates may be found by clicking INTEREST RATE
FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Fed Funds Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 27.6% that the Fed Funds Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 71.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2018 rate compared to the April, 2013 rate). 49 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast. Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the Fed Funds Rate. The forecast may change substantially as a
result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 27.6%
Down 71.9%
Unchanged 0.4%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Fed Funds Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of the Fed Funds
Interest Rate being ABOVE .20% in April, 2018 is 18%. The probability of the
Fed Funds Rate being BELOW .20% in April, 2018 is 82%. Probabilities for
various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
.20% 18% 82%
.19% 18% 82%
.18% 18% 82%
.17% 19% 81%
.17% 24% 76%
.16% 26% 74%
.15% 28% 72%
.14% 32% 68%
.14% 34% 66%
.13% 36% 64%
.12% 38% 62%
.11% 39% 61%
.11% 44% 56%
HISTORICAL FED FUNDS RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 0.15%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 1.78%
High (Last 12 Months) 0.16% (May, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months) 0.13% (August, 2012)
High (Since July, 1954) 19.10% (June, 1981)
Low (Since July, 1954) 0.07% (December, 2011)
MONTHLY FED FUNDS RATE
May, 2012 0.160%
Jun, 2012 0.160%
Jul, 2012 0.160%
Aug, 2012 0.130%
Sep, 2012 0.140%
Oct, 2012 0.160%
Nov, 2012 0.160%
Dec, 2012 0.160%
Jan, 2013 0.140%
Feb, 2013 0.150%
Mar, 2013 0.140%
Apr, 2013 0.150%
HIGHLIGHTS
The Fed Funds Interest Rate for April, 2013 averaged 0.15%. That's 1 basis
points higher than the March, 2013 rate of 0.14%, and 1 basis points higher
than the April, 2012 rate of 0.14%. The rise in rates from March to April
indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If that market trend
continues, we should see an average daily rate in May, 2013 that is close to
0.16%.
The average Fed Funds Rate for the last 12 months was 0.15%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 1.78%. Lower rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in the Fed Funds Rate is down.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.16%. The lowest was
0.13%. The high annual rate was attained in May, 2012. The market low was
achieved in August, 2012.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Fed Funds Rate data back to
July, 1954. The average annual rate during that period of history was 5.22%.
The highest rate was 19.10%. The lowest rate was 0.07%. The market high
was attained in June of 1981. The market low was achieved in December of
2011. Recent rates experienced in April of 2013 are low relative to the historical
5.22% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Fed Funds Interest
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Fed Funds Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Fed Funds Rate in numerical
format.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
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Average daily rate per month for Fed Funds is shown in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green.
shown in green.
| Fed Funds Interest Rate - 5 Year History |
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| Fed Funds Interest Rate Forecast |
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| Fed Funds Rate Forecast Compare US Interest Rates |
Current Analysis & Forecast: Fed Funds Interest Rate
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