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Market Commentary  27652
January, 2018 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Prime Interest Rate is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Prime Loan Interest Rates will
be roughly 4.55% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.84% which
suggests that the February, 2019 rate could easily fall between 5.39% and
3.70%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Prime Loan Interest Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 34.8% that the Prime Interest Rate will be higher in 5
years. The table shows a probability of 61.6% that the rate will be lower in 5
years. (January, 2023 rate compared to the January, 2018 rate). 59 YEARS of
historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the Prime Loan Interest Rate. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      34.8%
Down                  61.6%
Unchanged              3.6%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Prime Interest Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of Prime Interest
Rates being ABOVE 5.85% in January, 2023 is 13%. The probability of Prime
Loan Interest Rates being BELOW 5.85% in January, 2023 is 87%. Probabilities
for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
5.85%            13%    87%
5.63%            16%    84%
5.40%            19%    81%
5.18%            21%    79%
4.95%            23%    77%
4.73%            32%    68%
4.50%            35%    65%
4.28%            41%    59%
4.05%            44%    56%
3.83%            50%    50%
3.60%            55%    45%
3.38%            57%    43%
3.15%            62%    38%



HISTORICAL PRIME INTEREST RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        4.16%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          3.52%
High (Last 12 Months)             4.50% (January, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months)              3.75% (February, 2017)
High (Since January, 1949)    20.50% (August, 1981)
Low (Since January, 1949)      2.00% (August, 1950)

MONTHLY PRIME INTEREST RATE
Feb, 2017     3.75%
Mar, 2017     3.88%
Apr,  2017     4.00%
May, 2017     4.00%
Jun,  2017     4.13%
Jul,   2017     4.25%
Aug, 2017     4.25%
Sep, 2017     4.25%
Oct, 2017     4.25%
Nov, 2017     4.25%
Dec, 2017     4.40%
Jan,  2018     4.50%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The Prime Interest Rate for January, 2018 averaged 4.5%. That's 10 basis
points higher than the December, 2017 rate of 4.4%, and 75 basis points
higher than the January, 2017 rate of 3.75%.  The rise in rates from December
to January indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If that market
trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in February, 2018 that is
close to 4.6%.

The average Prime Interest Rate for the last 12 months was 4.16%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 3.52%.  Higher rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in Prime Interest Rates is up.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 4.50%. The lowest was
3.75%. The high annual rate was attained in January, 2018. The market low
was achieved in February, 2017.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Prime Interest Rate data back
to January, 1949. The average annual rate during that period of history was
6.58%. The highest rate was 20.50%. The lowest rate was 2.00%.  The market
high was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in August of
1950. Recent rates experienced in January of 2018 are low relative to the
historical 6.58% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for Prime Interest Rates.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on Prime Loan Interest Rates. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the Prime Loan Interest
Rate in numerical format.







Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank
Prime Loan Rate [MPRIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MPRIME

SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.




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The average daily rate per month for prime interest rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
Prime Rate - 5 Year History
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Prime Interest Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical Prime Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
2.00
2.07
2.56
3.00
3.17
3.05
3.16
3.77
4.20
3.83
4.48
4.82
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.54
5.63
5.63
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
6.31
7.95
7.91
5.72
5.25
8.02
10.80
7.86
6.84
6.82
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
8.20
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.14
8.83
8.27
8.44
8.35
7.99
9.23
6.92
4.68
4.12
4.34
6.19
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
7.96
8.05
5.09
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.26
3.51
4.10
Average annual rates for the Prime Interest Rate is shown in this table: 1949 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: Prime Interest Rate
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
Prime Interest Rate Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
February, 2019
4.55%
0.84%
 
Forecast for the average daily prime interest rate during the target
month shown at the left. See Commentary & 5 Year Forecast below.