Market Commentary  14845
December, 2013 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 10 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 3.05% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.43%
which suggests that the January, 2015 rate could easily fall between 3.47% and
2.62%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 5.0% that the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 95.0% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (December, 2018 rate compared to the December, 2013 rate).
51 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      5%
Down                  95%
Unchanged              0%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 10 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 10 Year
Treasury Interest Rates being ABOVE 2.76% in December, 2018 is 12%. The
probability of 10 Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW 2.76% in December,
2018 is 88%. Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
2.76%            12%    88%
2.61%            22%    78%
2.47%            36%    64%
2.32%            49%    51%
2.18%            62%    38%
2.03%            72%    28%
             
             
             
             
             
             
             



HISTORICAL 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        2.35%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          3.51%
High (Last 12 Months)             2.90% (December, 2013)
Low (Last 12 Months)              1.76% (April, 2013)
High (Since April, 1953)    15.32% (September, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953)      1.53% (July, 2012)

MONTHLY 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Jan,  2013     1.910%
Feb, 2013     1.98%
Mar, 2013     1.96%
Apr,  2013     1.76%
May, 2013     1.93%
Jun,  2013     2.30%
Jul,   2013     2.58%
Aug, 2013     2.74%
Sep, 2013     2.81%
Oct, 2013     2.62%
Nov, 2013     2.72%
Dec, 2013     2.90%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The 10 Year Treasury Yield for December, 2013 averaged 2.9%. That's 18
basis points higher than the November, 2013 rate of 2.72%, and 118 basis
points higher than the December, 2012 rate of 1.72%.  The rise in rates from
November to December indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If
that market trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in January,
2014 that is close to 3.08%.

The average 10 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 2.35%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 3.51%.  Lower rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 10 Year US T-Note Yields is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 2.90%. The lowest was
1.76%. The high annual rate was attained in December, 2013. The market low
was achieved in April, 2013.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 10 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
6.11%. The highest rate was 15.32%. The lowest rate was 1.53%.  The market
high was attained in September of 1981. The market low was achieved in July of
2012. Recent rates experienced in December of 2013 are low relative to the
historical 6.11% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 10 Year Treasury
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 10 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term
charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the 10 Year Treasury
Note Yield in numerical format.








































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4%
5%
Average daily rate per month for 10 year treasury rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
10 Year Treasury Rate (T Note Yield) - 5 Year History
10 Year Treasury Note Interest Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the average daily interest rate for
10 year treasury bonds during the target
month shown at the left.
Jan 2015
3.05%
.43%
Updated Thursday, January 16, 2014.
10 Year Treasury Note Yield Forecast (US T-Note Interest Rate)
3%
2%
10 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
1%
0%
Historical 10 Year US Treasury Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
2.40
2.82
3.18
3.65
3.32
4.33
4.12
3.88
3.95
4.00
4.19
4.28
4.92
5.07
5.65
6.67
7.35
6.16
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
6.21
6.84
7.56
7.99
7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.11
12.44
10.62
7.68
8.38
8.85
8.50
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.08
6.58
6.44
6.35
5.26
5.64
6.03
5.02
4.61
4.02
4.27
4.29
4.79
4.63
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3.67
3.26
3.21
2.79
1.80
2.35
Average annual rates for the 10 Year Treasury are shown in this table: 1954 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: 10 Year Treasury Note Yield
Forecasts, charts and analysis...
1/09
1/2010
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/16