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Market Commentary  26281
September, 2017 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 30 Year Mortgage
Interest Rates will be roughly 3.87% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of
0.42% which suggests that the October, 2018 rate could easily fall between
4.28% and 3.45%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by
clicking INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 11.4% that the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate will
be higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 88.6% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (September, 2022 rate compared to the September, 2017
rate). 44 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      11.4%
Down                  88.6%
Unchanged              0%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate likely to
be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 30 Year
Mortgage Interest Rates being ABOVE 4.02% in September, 2022 is 6%. The
probability of 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates being BELOW 4.02% in
September, 2022 is 94%. Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
4.02%            6%    94%
3.83%            11%    89%
3.64%            17%    83%
3.45%            29%    71%
3.26%            51%    49%
3.06%            64%    36%
2.87%            76%    24%
2.68%            87%    13%
            
            
            
            
            



HISTORICAL 30 YEAR MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        3.98%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          4.41%
High (Last 12 Months)             4.32% (December, 2016)
Low (Last 12 Months)              3.47% (October, 2016)
High (Since January, 1964)    18.44% (October, 1981)
Low (Since January, 1964)      3.32% (November, 2012)

MONTHLY 30 YEAR MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
Oct, 2016     3.47%
Nov, 2016     4.03%
Dec, 2016     4.32%
Jan,  2017     4.19%
Feb, 2017     4.16%
Mar, 2017     4.14%
Apr,  2017     4.03%
May, 2017     3.95%
Jun,  2017     3.88%
Jul,   2017     3.92%
Aug, 2017     3.82%
Sep, 2017     3.83%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate for September, 2017 averaged 3.83%.
That's 1 basis points higher than the August, 2017 rate of 3.82%, and 41 basis
points higher than the September, 2016 rate of 3.42%.  The minor movement in
rates from August to September indicates that the short term rate trend has
been relatively flat. If that market trend continues, we should see an average
daily rate in October, 2017 that is close to 3.84%.

The average 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate for the last 12 months was 3.98%.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 4.41%.  Lower rates over the last
12 months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates is
down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 4.32%. The lowest was
3.47%. The high annual rate was attained in December, 2016. The market low
was achieved in October, 2016.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 30 Year Mortgage Interest
Rate data back to January, 1964. The average annual rate during that period
of history was 8.01%. The highest rate was 18.44%. The lowest rate was
3.32%.  The market high was attained in October of 1981. The market low was
achieved in November of 2012. Recent rates experienced in September of 2017
are low relative to the historical 8.01% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 30 Year Mortgage
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates. Just one glance at our long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets. The data table above presents the history of the 30 Year
Mortgage Interest Rate in numerical format.







Source: Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United
States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Average daily rate per month for 30 year fixed mortgage rates is shown in gray.  Source: Freddie Mac.
The forecast for the  target month is shown in green.
30 Year Mortgage Rates - 5 Year History
30 Year Mortgage Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the average daily mortgage
interest rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage
during the target month shown at the left.
Oct 2018
3.87%
.42%
Updated Tuesday, Oct 10, 2017.
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
30 Year Mortgage Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
5.45
5.46
6.25
6.55
7.11
8.13
9.01
7.76
7.38
8.04
9.19
9.04
8.87
8.84
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
9.64
11.19
13.77
16.63
16.08
13.23
13.87
12.42
10.18
10.20
10.34
10.32
10.13
9.25
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
8.40
7.33
8.36
7.96
7.81
7.60
6.94
7.43
8.06
6.97
6.54
5.82
5.84
5.87
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6.41
6.34
6.04
5.04
4.69
4.46
3.66
3.98
4.17
3.85
3.67
Average annual rates for the 30 Year Mortgage are shown in this table: 1964 to present
2.0%
Current Analysis & Forecast: 30 Year Mortgage Rates
3.0%
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21