Market Commentary 13173
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 1 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 0.12% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.03%
which suggests that the May, 2014 rate could easily fall between 0.16% and
0.09%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 25.8% that the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 74.2% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2018 rate compared to the April, 2013 rate). 50 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast. Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.
Forecast Probability
Up 25.8%
Down 74.2%
Unchanged 0%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 1 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 1 Year Treasury
Interest Rates being ABOVE .16% in April, 2018 is 16%. The probability of 1
Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW .16% in April, 2018 is 84%. Probabilities
for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
.16% 16% 84%
.15% 18% 82%
.14% 20% 80%
.14% 20% 80%
.13% 22% 78%
.13% 25% 75%
.12% 26% 74%
.11% 28% 72%
.11% 34% 66%
.10% 36% 64%
.10% 39% 61%
.09% 42% 58%
.08% 47% 53%
HISTORICAL 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 0.17%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 1.88%
High (Last 12 Months) 0.19% (May, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months) 0.12% (April, 2013)
High (Since April, 1953) 16.72% (August, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953) 0.10% (September, 2011)
MONTHLY 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
May, 2012 0.19%
Jun, 2012 0.19%
Jul, 2012 0.19%
Aug, 2012 0.18%
Sep, 2012 0.18%
Oct, 2012 0.18%
Nov, 2012 0.18%
Dec, 2012 0.16%
Jan, 2013 0.15%
Feb, 2013 0.16%
Mar, 2013 0.15%
Apr, 2013 0.12%
HIGHLIGHTS
The 1 Year Treasury Yield for April, 2013 averaged 0.12%. That's 3 basis
points lower than the March, 2013 rate of 0.15%, and 6 basis points lower than
the April, 2012 rate of 0.18%. The fall in rates from March to April indicates that
the short term rate trend has been down. If that market trend continues, we
should see an average daily rate in May, 2013 that is close to 0.09%.
The average 1 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 0.17%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 1.88%. Lower rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 1 Year Treasury Rates is down.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.19%. The lowest was
0.12%. The high annual rate was attained in May, 2012. The market low was
achieved in April, 2013.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 1 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.22%. The highest rate was 16.72%. The lowest rate was 0.10%. The market
high was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in
September of 2011. Recent rates experienced in April of 2013 are low relative
to the historical 5.22% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 1 Year Treasury Interest
Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on 1 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield in
numerical format.
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April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 1 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 0.12% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.03%
which suggests that the May, 2014 rate could easily fall between 0.16% and
0.09%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 25.8% that the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 74.2% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2018 rate compared to the April, 2013 rate). 50 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast. Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.
Forecast Probability
Up 25.8%
Down 74.2%
Unchanged 0%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 1 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 1 Year Treasury
Interest Rates being ABOVE .16% in April, 2018 is 16%. The probability of 1
Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW .16% in April, 2018 is 84%. Probabilities
for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
.16% 16% 84%
.15% 18% 82%
.14% 20% 80%
.14% 20% 80%
.13% 22% 78%
.13% 25% 75%
.12% 26% 74%
.11% 28% 72%
.11% 34% 66%
.10% 36% 64%
.10% 39% 61%
.09% 42% 58%
.08% 47% 53%
HISTORICAL 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 0.17%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 1.88%
High (Last 12 Months) 0.19% (May, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months) 0.12% (April, 2013)
High (Since April, 1953) 16.72% (August, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953) 0.10% (September, 2011)
MONTHLY 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
May, 2012 0.19%
Jun, 2012 0.19%
Jul, 2012 0.19%
Aug, 2012 0.18%
Sep, 2012 0.18%
Oct, 2012 0.18%
Nov, 2012 0.18%
Dec, 2012 0.16%
Jan, 2013 0.15%
Feb, 2013 0.16%
Mar, 2013 0.15%
Apr, 2013 0.12%
HIGHLIGHTS
The 1 Year Treasury Yield for April, 2013 averaged 0.12%. That's 3 basis
points lower than the March, 2013 rate of 0.15%, and 6 basis points lower than
the April, 2012 rate of 0.18%. The fall in rates from March to April indicates that
the short term rate trend has been down. If that market trend continues, we
should see an average daily rate in May, 2013 that is close to 0.09%.
The average 1 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 0.17%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 1.88%. Lower rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 1 Year Treasury Rates is down.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.19%. The lowest was
0.12%. The high annual rate was attained in May, 2012. The market low was
achieved in April, 2013.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 1 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.22%. The highest rate was 16.72%. The lowest rate was 0.10%. The market
high was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in
September of 2011. Recent rates experienced in April of 2013 are low relative
to the historical 5.22% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 1 Year Treasury Interest
Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on 1 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield in
numerical format.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Average daily rate per month for 1 year treasury rates is shown in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green.
month is shown in green.
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Current Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year Treasury Note Yield
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