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Market Commentary  19269
April, 2015 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 1 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 0.23% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.07%
which suggests that the May, 2016 rate could easily fall between 0.30% and
0.16%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 24.4% that the 1 Year Treasury Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 75.6% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (April, 2020 rate compared to the April, 2015 rate). 52 YEARS
of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for Forecast-Chart.com's 5
Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for updates to the 5 Year
Forecast for the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield. The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      24.4%
Down                  75.6%
Unchanged              0%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 1 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 1 Year Treasury
Interest Rates being ABOVE .30% in April, 2020 is 15%. The probability of 1
Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW .30% in April, 2020 is 85%. Probabilities
for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
.30%            15%    85%
.29%            17%    83%
.28%            19%    81%
.26%            19%    81%
.25%            21%    79%
.24%            24%    76%
.23%            24%    76%
.22%            27%    73%
.21%            32%    68%
.20%            34%    66%
.18%            37%    63%
.17%            39%    61%
.16%            45%    55%



HISTORICAL 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        0.16%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          1.53%
High (Last 12 Months)             0.25% (March, 2015)
Low (Last 12 Months)              0.10% (October, 2014)
High (Since April, 1953)    16.72% (August, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953)      0.10% (October, 2014)

MONTHLY 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE
May, 2014     0.10%
Jun,  2014     0.10%
Jul,   2014     0.11%
Aug, 2014     0.11%
Sep, 2014     0.11%
Oct, 2014     0.10%
Nov, 2014     0.13%
Dec, 2014     0.21%
Jan,  2015     0.20%
Feb, 2015     0.22%
Mar, 2015     0.25%
Apr,  2015     0.23%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The 1 Year Treasury Yield for April, 2015 averaged 0.23%. That's 2 basis
points lower than the March, 2015 rate of 0.25%, and 12 basis points higher
than the April, 2014 rate of 0.11%.  The fall in rates from March to April
indicates that the short term rate trend has been down. If that market trend
continues, we should see an average daily rate in May, 2015 that is close to
0.21%.

The average 1 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 0.16%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 1.53%.  Lower rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 1 Year Treasury Rates is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.25%. The lowest was
0.10%. The high annual rate was attained in March, 2015. The market low was
achieved in October, 2014.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 1 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.05%. The highest rate was 16.72%. The lowest rate was 0.10%.  The market
high was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in October
of 2014. Recent rates experienced in April of 2015 are low relative to the
historical 5.05% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 1 Year Treasury Interest
Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on 1 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the 1 Year Treasury Note Yield in
numerical format.









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Average daily rate per month for 1 year treasury rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
1 Year Treasury Rate (T Note Yield) - 5 Year History
1 Year Treasury Note Interest Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the average daily interest rate for
the 1 year treasury bond during the target
month shown at the left.
May 2016
0.23%
.07%
Updated Wednesday, May 20, 2015.
1 Year Treasury Note Yield Forecast (US T-Note Interest Rate)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical 1 Year US Treasury Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1.05
2.04
2.99
3.62
2.27
4.24
3.63
2.98
3.10
3.36
3.85
4.14
5.20
4.89
5.69
7.12
6.90
4.88
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
4.96
7.31
8.18
6.76
5.87
6.09
8.34
10.67
12.05
14.78
12.28
9.57
10.89
8.43
6.46
6.76
7.65
8.54
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
7.88
5.86
3.89
3.43
5.31
5.95
5.51
5.63
5.05
5.08
6.11
3.48
2.00
1.24
1.89
3.62
4.93
4.52
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.82
0.47
0.32
0.18
0.18
0.13
0.12
Average annual rates for the 1 Year Treasury are shown in this table: 1954 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year Treasury Note Yield
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17