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Market Commentary  27648
January, 2018 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 5 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 5 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 2.52% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.51%
which suggests that the February, 2019 rate could easily fall between 3.04%
and 2.01%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 5 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 20.9% that the 5 Year Treasury Interest Rate will be
higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 79.1% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (January, 2023 rate compared to the January, 2018 rate). 55
YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 5 Year Treasury Note Yield. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      20.9%
Down                  79.1%
Unchanged              0%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 5 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 5 Year Treasury
Interest Rates being ABOVE 3.09% in January, 2023 is 6%. The probability of 5
Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW 3.09% in January, 2023 is 94%.
Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
3.09%            6%    94%
2.98%            7%    93%
2.86%            8%    92%
2.74%            10%    90%
2.62%            11%    89%
2.50%            15%    85%
2.38%            21%    79%
2.26%            26%    74%
2.14%            33%    67%
2.02%            38%    62%
1.90%            43%    57%
1.79%            47%    53%
1.67%            58%    42%



HISTORICAL 5 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        1.95%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          1.67%
High (Last 12 Months)             2.38% (January, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months)              1.77% (June, 2017)
High (Since April, 1953)    15.93% (September, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953)      0.62% (July, 2012)

MONTHLY 5 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Feb, 2017     1.90%
Mar, 2017     2.01%
Apr,  2017     1.82%
May, 2017     1.84%
Jun,  2017     1.77%
Jul,   2017     1.87%
Aug, 2017     1.78%
Sep, 2017     1.80%
Oct, 2017     1.98%
Nov, 2017     2.05%
Dec, 2017     2.18%
Jan,  2018     2.38%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The 5 Year Treasury Yield for January, 2018 averaged 2.38%. That's 20 basis
points higher than the December, 2017 rate of 2.18%, and 46 basis points
higher than the January, 2017 rate of 1.92%.  The rise in rates from December
to January indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If that market
trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in February, 2018 that is
close to 2.58%.

The average 5 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 1.95%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 1.67%.  Higher rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 5 Year Treasury Rates is up.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 2.38%. The lowest was
1.77%. The high annual rate was attained in January, 2018. The market low
was achieved in June, 2017.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 5 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.55%. The highest rate was 15.93%. The lowest rate was 0.62%.  The market
high was attained in September of 1981. The market low was achieved in July of
2012. Recent rates experienced in January of 2018 are low relative to the
historical 5.55% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 5 Year Treasury Interest
Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on 5 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the 5 Year Treasury Note Yield in
numerical format.







Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), 5-Year
Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [GS5], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS5

SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.




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Average daily rate per month for 5 year treasury rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
5 Year Treasury Rate (T Note Yield) - 5 Year History
5 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical 5 Year US Treasury Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1.99
2.65
3.20
3.69
3.06
4.46
4.09
3.75
3.70
3.83
4.07
4.25
5.10
5.11
5.70
6.93
7.38
5.99
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
5.98
6.87
7.80
7.77
7.18
6.99
8.32
9.52
11.48
14.24
13.01
10.80
12.24
10.13
7.31
7.94
8.47
8.50
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8.37
7.37
6.19
5.15
6.68
6.39
6.18
6.22
5.15
5.54
6.15
4.55
3.82
2.97
3.43
4.05
4.75
4.43
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2.8
2.19
1.93
1.52
0.76
1.17
1.64
1.53
1.34
1.91
Average annual rates for the 5 Year Treasury are shown in this table: 1954 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: 5 Year Treasury Note Yield
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
5 Year Treasury Note Interest Rate Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
February, 2019
2.52%
0.51%
 
Forecast for the average daily interest rate for 5 year treasury notes
during the target month shown at the left. See Commentary & 5 Year
Forecast below.