Market Commentary 30648
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the DAX Stock Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a DAX Index of 12367. The table
shows a HDTFA of 1960 which suggests that the February, 2020 DAX could
easily close anywhere between 14328 and 10407. Links to Forecasts for
twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
All Time High 13230 (October, 2017)
January, 2019 close 11173
Decline From All Time High 16%
10 Year Return 158%
5 Year Low 9327 (October, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 20%
The highest all time monthly close in the DAX Stock Index was 13230 in
October, of 2017. The January, 2019 close was 11173. That's a decline of
2056 points or 16% below the DAX Index all time high. The DAX Stock Index is
up 158% over the last 10 years. It has lost 15% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 614.14 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
10559, resulting in a 5.82% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the DAX Index was 9327 in October of 2014. The
January, 2019 close at 11173.1 represents a 20% gain since October, 2014.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the DAX back to December,
1990. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the DAX Stock
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the DAX Index. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the DAX
Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table above
presents historical data on the DAX Index categorized by the months of the
ROLLING RETURNS, 1990 - 2019: DAX Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -15% / 13th 79% / 10% / -49%
2 Year -3% / 18th 132% / 22% / -60%
4 Year 4% / 24th 229% / 49% / -50%
8 Year 58% / 44th 384% / 91% / -34%
16 Year 335% / 91st 401% / 178% / 23%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the DAX Stock Index returned
-3%. That period scored in the 18th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 18% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1990. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1990 returned 132%. The worst returned -60%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 22%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the DAX Stock Index are as follows:
1 Year: 327
2 Year: 315
4 Year: 291
8 Year: 243
16 Year: 147
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the DAX Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is shown in
green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|DAX Stock Index - 5 Year History
DAX Stock Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: DAX Stock Index
|DAX Stock Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
|DAX Stock Market Index Forecast (Germany)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the DAX Stock Index for the target|
month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.