Market Commentary 29200
August, 2018 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the DAX Stock Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a DAX Index of 14515. The table
shows a HDTFA of 2332 which suggests that the September, 2019 DAX could
easily close anywhere between 16847 and 12183. Links to Forecasts for
twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (August, 2028
close compared to August, 2018 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 13230 (October, 2017)
August, 2018 close 12364
Decline From All Time High 7%
10 Year Return 93%
5 Year Low 8594 (September, 2013)
Gain From 5 Year Low 44%
The highest all time monthly close in the DAX Stock Index was 13230 in
October, of 2017. The August, 2018 close was 12364. That's a decline of 866
points or 7% below the DAX Index all time high. The DAX Stock Index is up 93%
over the last 10 years. It has gained 3% over the last 12 months.
The August close was 441.44 points lower than the July, 2018 close of 12806,
resulting in a 3.45% decline for August.
The 5 year market low for the DAX Index was 8594 in September of 2013. The
August, 2018 close at 12364.06 represents a 44% gain since September, 2013.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the DAX back to December,
1990. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the DAX Stock
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the DAX Index. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the DAX
Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table above
presents historical data on the DAX Index categorized by the months of the
calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1990  2018: DAX Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 3% / 33rd 79% / 11% / 49%
2 Year 17% / 42nd 132% / 23% / 60%
4 Year 31% / 39th 229% / 49% / 50%
8 Year 109% / 70th 384% / 91% / 34%
16 Year 324% / 89th 401% / 174% / 23%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2016  8/2018), the DAX Stock Index returned
17%. That period scored in the 42nd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 42% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1990. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1990 returned 132%. The worst returned 60%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 23%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the DAX Stock Index are as follows:
1 Year: 322
2 Year: 310
4 Year: 286
8 Year: 238
16 Year: 142
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, September 7, 2018.Market Commentary 29962
November, 2018 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the DAX Stock Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a DAX Index of 13029. The table
shows a HDTFA of 2071 which suggests that the December, 2019 DAX could
easily close anywhere between 15100 and 10959. Links to Forecasts for
twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (November, 2028
close compared to November, 2018 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 13230 (October, 2017)
November, 2018 close 11257
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 141%
5 Year Low 9306 (January, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 21%
The highest all time monthly close in the DAX Stock Index was 13230 in
October, of 2017. The November, 2018 close was 11257. That's a decline of
1972 points or 15% below the DAX Index all time high. The DAX Stock Index is
up 141% over the last 10 years. It has lost 14% over the last 12 months.
The November close was 190.27 points lower than the October, 2018 close of
11448, resulting in a 1.66% decline for November.
The 5 year market low for the DAX Index was 9306 in January of 2014. The
November, 2018 close at 11257.24 represents a 21% gain since January, 2014.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the DAX back to December,
1990. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the DAX Stock
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the DAX Index. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the DAX
Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table above
presents historical data on the DAX Index categorized by the months of the
calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1990  2018: DAX Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 14% / 14th 79% / 10% / 49%
2 Year 6% / 25th 132% / 23% / 60%
4 Year 13% / 32nd 229% / 49% / 50%
8 Year 68% / 54th 384% / 91% / 34%
16 Year 280% / 83rd 401% / 176% / 23%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (12/2016  11/2018), the DAX Stock Index returned
6%. That period scored in the 25th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 25% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1990. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1990 returned 132%. The worst returned 60%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 23%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the DAX Stock Index are as follows:
1 Year: 325
2 Year: 313
4 Year: 289
8 Year: 241
16 Year: 145
Dividends are not included.
Updated Wednesday, December 19, 2018.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2018; All rights reserved.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2018; All rights reserved.
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Monthly close for the DAX Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is shown in
green. See other links related to this stock index below.
DAX Stock Index  5 Year History

DAX Stock Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: DAX Stock Index
DAX Stock Index: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

1.21 0.51 1.94





July Aug Sept

1.48 3.79 2.04






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






1/14
1/2017
DAX Stock Market Index Forecast (Germany)




Target Month: Forecast: HDTFA:




Forecast for the monthly close of the DAX Stock Index for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.


