Market Commentary 30649
January, 2019 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the FTSE 100 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a FTSE 100 Stock Index of 6935. The
table shows a HDTFA of 918 which suggests that the February, 2020 FTSE 100
could easily close anywhere between 7853 and 6017. Links to Forecasts for
twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the FTSE 100
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the FTSE 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 8%
Up 92%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 90%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 85%
Up at least 50% 80%
Up at least 100% 63%
Up at least 150% 45%
Up at least 200% 17%
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the FTSE 100 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the FTSE 100
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the FTSE
100. The latest ranking of the FTSE 100 Index is 7. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The forecast for the FTSE 100 Index is designed for British Pound based
investors . Returns for investors not based in the British Pound will be affected
by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
12/1982, when the FTSE 100 Index closed at 593. The last time that the FTSE
100 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the FTSE 100 Index
closed at 3261. The last time that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received the worst
rank (1) was 11/2000, when the FTSE 100 Index closed at 4807. The last time
that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was 4/2001, when the
FTSE 100 Index closed at 4484. Last month's close for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 7749 (July, 2018)
January, 2019 close 6969
Decline From All Time High 10%
10 Year Return 68%
5 Year Low 6033 (February, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 16%
The highest all time monthly close in the FTSE 100 Index was 7749 in July, of
2018. The January, 2019 close was 6969. That's a decline of 780 points or
10% below the FTSE 100 Stock Index all time high. The FTSE 100 Index is up
68% over the last 10 years. It has lost 7% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 240.72 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
6728, resulting in a 3.58% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the FTSE 100 Stock Index was 6033 in February of
2016. The January, 2019 close at 6968.85 represents a 16% gain since
February, 2016.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the FTSE 100 back to April,
1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the FTSE 100
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the FTSE 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the FTSE 100 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1935  2019: FTSE 100 / FT 30
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 7% / 22nd 129% / 7% / 55%
2 Year 2% / 27th 106% / 13% / 69%
4 Year 3% / 26th 201% / 28% / 52%
8 Year 19% / 26th 283% / 65% / 48%
16 Year 95% / 36th 886% / 187% / 26%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017  1/2019), the FTSE 100 / FT 30 returned
2%. That period scored in the 27th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 27% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1935. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1935 returned 106%. The worst returned 69%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 13%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the FTSE 100 / FT 30 are as
follows:
1 Year: 991
2 Year: 979
4 Year: 955
8 Year: 907
16 Year: 811
The FTSE 100 Index begins in March, 1984. To provide a longer and more
varied history for Rolling Periods, the FT 30 (July, 1935  March, 1984) has
been appended to the data series. Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1969  2019: FTSE 100 / FT 30
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 7% / 20th 129% / 7% / 55%
2 Year 2% / 22nd 106% / 15% / 69%
4 Year 3% / 26th 201% / 31% / 52%
8 Year 19% / 27th 283% / 79% / 33%
16 Year 95% / 32nd 886% / 254% / 7%
The number of periods in each category for the FTSE 100 / FT 30 are as
follows:
1 Year: 589
2 Year: 577
4 Year: 553
8 Year: 505
16 Year: 409
The FTSE 100 Index begins in March, 1984. To provide a longer and more
varied history for Rolling Periods, the FT 30 (1969  March, 1984) has been
appended to the data series. Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2019; All rights reserved.
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FTSE 100 Stock Forecast
FTSE 100: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

1.33 0.43 0.71





July Aug Sept

0.32 0.52 0.11






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: FTSE 100 Stock Index
FTSE 100 Stock Market Index Forecast




Target Month: Forecast: HDTFA:




Forecast for the monthly close of the FTSE 100 Stock Index for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.


