Market Commentary 30654
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Hang Seng Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Hang Seng Stock Index of 31496.
The table shows a HDTFA of 4996 which suggests that the February, 2020
Hang Seng could easily close anywhere between 36493 and 26500. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Hang Seng
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the Hang Seng Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 89%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 86%
Up at least 100% 77%
Up at least 150% 60%
Up at least 200% 33%
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Hang Seng is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the Hang
Seng. The latest ranking of the Hang Seng Index is 9. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is designed for Hong Kong Dollar based
investors . Returns for investors not based in the Hong Kong Dollar will be
affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
12/2018, when the Hang Seng Index closed at 25846. The last time that the
Hang Seng Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 1/2019, when the Hang Seng
Index closed at 27942. The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received
the worst rank (1) was 10/2007, when the Hang Seng Index closed at 31638.
The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a rank of 2 was 11/2007,
when the Hang Seng Index closed at 27371. Last month's close for the Hang
Seng Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
All Time High 32887 (January, 2018)
January, 2019 close 27942
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 118%
5 Year Low 19112 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 46%
The highest all time monthly close in the Hang Seng Index was 32887 in
January, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 27942. That's a decline of 4945
points or 15% below the Hang Seng Stock Index all time high. The Hang Seng
Index is up 118% over the last 10 years. It has lost 15% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 2096.77 points higher than the December, 2018 close
of 25846, resulting in a 8.11% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Hang Seng Stock Index was 19112 in January of
2016. The January, 2019 close at 27942.471 represents a 46% gain since
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Hang Seng back to June,
1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Hang Seng
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Hang Seng Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Hang Seng Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1986 - 2019: Hang Seng Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -15% / 14th 116% / 11% / -55%
2 Year 18% / 48th 177% / 22% / -42%
4 Year 13% / 35th 319% / 48% / -37%
8 Year 20% / 22nd 568% / 102% / -28%
16 Year 206% / 63rd 676% / 219% / 11%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the Hang Seng Index returned
18%. That period scored in the 48th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 48% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1986. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1986 returned 177%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 22%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Hang Seng Index are as follows:
1 Year: 374
2 Year: 362
4 Year: 338
8 Year: 290
16 Year: 194
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Hang Seng Stock Index - 5 Year History
Hang Seng Index Forecast
|Hang Seng: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others.|
The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is
shown above. Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Hang Seng Stock Index
|Hang Seng Stock Market Index Forecast (Hong Kong)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Hang Seng Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.