Market Commentary 30656
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P Global Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a S&P Global Stock Index of 93. The
table shows a HDTFA of 10 which suggests that the February, 2020 S&P Global
100 could easily close anywhere between 103 and 82. Links to Forecasts for
twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
All Time High 98 (September, 2018)
January, 2019 close 90
Decline From All Time High 8%
10 Year Return 106%
5 Year Low 67 (February, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 34%
The highest all time monthly close in the S&P Global Index was 98 in
September, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 90. That's a decline of 7
points or 8% below the S&P Global Stock Index all time high. The S&P Global
Index is up 106% over the last 10 years. It has lost 7% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 5.44 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
85, resulting in a 6.42% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the S&P Global Stock Index was 67 in February of
2016. The January, 2019 close at 90.24 represents a 34% gain since February,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P Global 100 back to
January, 2001. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P Global Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P Global Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the S&P Global Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
ROLLING RETURNS, 2000 - 2019: S&P Global Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -7% / 20th 47% / 4% / -46%
2 Year 16% / 58th 70% / 9% / -47%
4 Year 21% / 59th 76% / 15% / -37%
8 Year 40% / 72nd 106% / 20% / -40%
16 Year 111% / 96th 140% / 65% / 8%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the S&P Global Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 58th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 58% of all rolling 2 year periods since 2000. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 2000 returned 70%. The worst returned -47%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 9%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P Global Index are as follows:
1 Year: 206
2 Year: 194
4 Year: 170
8 Year: 122
16 Year: 26
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P Global Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|S&P Global Stock Index - 5 Year History
S&P Global Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P Global Stock Index
|S&P Global Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the S&P Global Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.