Market Commentary 29961
November, 2018 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Nikkei 225 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Nikkei 225 Stock Index of 21674.
The table shows a HDTFA of 4434 which suggests that the December, 2019
Nikkei 225 could easily close anywhere between 26108 and 17241. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (November, 2028
close compared to November, 2018 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
All Time High 38424 (May, 1990)
November, 2018 close 22351
Decline From All Time High 42%
10 Year Return 141%
5 Year Low 14304 (April, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 56%
The highest all time monthly close in the Nikkei 225 Index was 38424 in May, of
1990. The November, 2018 close was 22351. That's a decline of 16073 points
or 42% below the Nikkei 225 Stock Index all time high. The Nikkei 225 Index is
up 141% over the last 10 years. It has lost 2% over the last 12 months.
The November close was 430.60 points higher than the October, 2018 close of
21920, resulting in a 1.96% rise in November.
The 5 year market low for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index was 14304 in April of
2014. The November, 2018 close at 22351.06 represents a 56% gain since
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Nikkei 225 back to
September, 1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Nikkei 225 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Nikkei 225 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Nikkei 225 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Nikkei 225 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1984 - 2018: Nikkei 225 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -2% / 41st 66% / 5% / -42%
2 Year 22% / 65th 110% / 10% / -55%
4 Year 28% / 62nd 200% / 17% / -52%
8 Year 125% / 96th 159% / 0% / -59%
16 Year 162% / 100th 162% / -17% / -64%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (12/2016 - 11/2018), the Nikkei 225 Index returned
22%. That period scored in the 65th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 65% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1984. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1984 returned 110%. The worst returned -55%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Nikkei 225 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 400
2 Year: 388
4 Year: 364
8 Year: 316
16 Year: 220
Dividends are not included.
Updated Wednesday, December 19, 2018.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Nikkei 225 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Nikkei 225: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Nikkei 225 Stock Index
|Nikkei 225 Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Nikkei 225 Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.