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Market Commentary  29187
August, 2018 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 12433. The table shows a HDTFA of 1968 which suggests that the
September, 2019 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere
between 14401 and 10466. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock
indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (August, 2028
close compared to August, 2018 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          11304 (August, 2018)
August, 2018 close                11304

10 Year Return                       121%
5 Year Low                             6582 (September, 2013)
Gain From 5 Year Low            72%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 11304 in August, of 2018.  
The Dow Transportation Index is up 121% over the last 10 years. It has gained
21% over the last 12 months.

The August close was 226.66 points higher than the July, 2018 close of 11077,
resulting in a 2.05% rise in August.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 6582 in
September of 2013. The August, 2018 close at 11303.76 represents a 72%
gain since September, 2013.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2018: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     21% / 69th                  262% / 9% / -84%
2 Year                     43% / 77th                  227% / 16% / -90%
4 Year                     34% / 47th                  256% / 35% / -85%
8 Year                     174% / 86th               355% / 81% / -88%
16 Year                   399% / 78th               984% / 243% / -72%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2016 - 8/2018), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 43%. That period scored in the 77th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 77% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 1067
2 Year: 1055
4 Year: 1031
8 Year: 983
16 Year: 887

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1968 - 2018: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     21% / 68th                  83% / 10% / -45%
2 Year                     43% / 77th                  103% / 21% / -54%
4 Year                     34% / 39th                  151% / 44% / -36%
8 Year                     174% / 80th               355% / 110% / -21%
16 Year                   399% / 63rd               984% / 354% / 65%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 596
2 Year: 584
4 Year: 560
8 Year: 512
16 Year: 416

Dividends are not included.










Updated Friday, September 7, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) - 5 Year History
Dow Transportation Index (DJTA) Forecast
9000
11000
13000
7000
5000
3000
Dow Jones Transports: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
0.19
-1.00
3.01
April
May
June
3.16
0.27
-0.84
July
Aug
Sept
0.80
-3.26
-1.46
Oct
Nov
Dec
3.45
2.76
1.46
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Transportation Index
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
Dow Transportation Index Stock Market Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
September, 2019
12433
1968
 
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Transportation Average
(DJTA) for the target month indicated.   See commentary and 10 year
forecast below.