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Market Commentary 31473
May, 2019 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 9814. The table shows a HDTFA of 1590 which suggests that the
June, 2020 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere between
11404 and 8224. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be
found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (May, 2029 close
compared to May, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 11379 (September, 2018)
May, 2019 close 9926
Decline From All Time High 13%
10 Year Return 210%
5 Year Low 6907 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 44%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 11379 in September, of
2018. The May, 2019 close was 9926. That's a decline of 1453 points or 13%
below the Dow Transports all time high. The Dow Transportation Index is up
210% over the last 10 years. It has lost 8% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 735.10 points lower than the April, 2019 close of 10662,
resulting in a 6.89% decline for May.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 6907 in
January of 2016. The May, 2019 close at 9926.47 represents a 44% gain since
January, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2019: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -8% / 25th 262% / 8% / -84%
2 Year 8% / 41st 227% / 16% / -90%
4 Year 20% / 39th 256% / 35% / -85%
8 Year 81% / 55th 355% / 82% / -88%
16 Year 299% / 66th 984% / 244% / -72%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2017 - 5/2019), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 8%. That period scored in the 41st percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 41% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 1076
2 Year: 1064
4 Year: 1040
8 Year: 992
16 Year: 896
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1969 - 2019: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -8% / 20th 83% / 11% / -45%
2 Year 8% / 33rd 103% / 22% / -49%
4 Year 20% / 29th 151% / 45% / -36%
8 Year 81% / 42nd 355% / 113% / -18%
16 Year 299% / 48th 984% / 361% / 65%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 593
2 Year: 581
4 Year: 557
8 Year: 509
16 Year: 413
Dividends are not included.
Updated Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
May, 2019 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 9814. The table shows a HDTFA of 1590 which suggests that the
June, 2020 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere between
11404 and 8224. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be
found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (May, 2029 close
compared to May, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 11379 (September, 2018)
May, 2019 close 9926
Decline From All Time High 13%
10 Year Return 210%
5 Year Low 6907 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 44%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 11379 in September, of
2018. The May, 2019 close was 9926. That's a decline of 1453 points or 13%
below the Dow Transports all time high. The Dow Transportation Index is up
210% over the last 10 years. It has lost 8% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 735.10 points lower than the April, 2019 close of 10662,
resulting in a 6.89% decline for May.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 6907 in
January of 2016. The May, 2019 close at 9926.47 represents a 44% gain since
January, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2019: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -8% / 25th 262% / 8% / -84%
2 Year 8% / 41st 227% / 16% / -90%
4 Year 20% / 39th 256% / 35% / -85%
8 Year 81% / 55th 355% / 82% / -88%
16 Year 299% / 66th 984% / 244% / -72%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2017 - 5/2019), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 8%. That period scored in the 41st percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 41% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 1076
2 Year: 1064
4 Year: 1040
8 Year: 992
16 Year: 896
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1969 - 2019: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -8% / 20th 83% / 11% / -45%
2 Year 8% / 33rd 103% / 22% / -49%
4 Year 20% / 29th 151% / 45% / -36%
8 Year 81% / 42nd 355% / 113% / -18%
16 Year 299% / 48th 984% / 361% / 65%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 593
2 Year: 581
4 Year: 557
8 Year: 509
16 Year: 413
Dividends are not included.
Updated Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) - 5 Year History |
Dow Transportation Index (DJTA) Forecast
9000
11000
13000
7000
5000
3000
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Stock Market Forecast: Dow Transportation Index
1/14
| 1/2015 |
| 1/2016 |
1/2017
| 1/2018 |
| 1/2019 |
| 1/2020 |
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