Market Commentary 31474
May, 2019 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Utility Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Utility Average of 758.
The table shows a HDTFA of 107 which suggests that the June, 2020 Dow
Utility Average could easily close anywhere between 865 and 650. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (May, 2029 close
compared to May, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 782 (May, 2019)
May, 2019 close 782
10 Year Return 129%
5 Year Low 539 (July, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 45%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJUA was 782 in May, of 2019. The
Dow Utility Index is up 129% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over the
last 12 months.
The May close was 1.21 points higher than the April, 2019 close of 780,
resulting in a 0.16% rise in May.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Utility Average was 539 in July of
2014. The May, 2019 close at 781.6 represents a 45% gain since July, 2014.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Utility Average back to
February, 1929. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
DJUA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Utilities. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Utility Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Utility Average categorized by
the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1929  2019: Dow Utility Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 68th 103% / 4% / 72%
2 Year 8% / 42nd 119% / 9% / 83%
4 Year 33% / 63rd 295% / 20% / 82%
8 Year 79% / 73rd 290% / 43% / 86%
16 Year 218% / 85th 605% / 111% / 76%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2017  5/2019), the Dow Utility Index returned 8%.
That period scored in the 42nd percentile, meaning that it scored better than
42% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1929. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1929 returned 119%. The worst returned 83%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 9%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 1073
2 Year: 1061
4 Year: 1037
8 Year: 989
16 Year: 893
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1969  2019: Dow Utility Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 68th 46% / 5% / 41%
2 Year 8% / 42nd 78% / 10% / 50%
4 Year 33% / 66th 142% / 21% / 45%
8 Year 79% / 84th 117% / 44% / 22%
16 Year 218% / 97th 280% / 106% / 10%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 593
2 Year: 581
4 Year: 557
8 Year: 509
16 Year: 413
Dividends are not included.
Updated Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2019; All rights reserved.
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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)  5 Year History

Dow Utility Index (DJUA) Forecast
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
Dow Jones Utilities: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

2.91 0.20 0.06





July Aug Sept

0.28 0.95 0.22






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: Dow Utility Index
1/14
1/2017
Dow Utility Index Stock Market Forecast (DJUA)




Target Month: Forecast: HDTFA:




Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.


