Market Commentary 31491
May, 2019 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Straits Times Stock Index is in the table at the top
of this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Straits Times Index of 3107.
The table shows a HDTFA of 522 which suggests that the June, 2020 Straits
Times Singapore Index could easily close anywhere between 3629 and 2586.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (May, 2029 close
compared to May, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 3862 (October, 2007)
May, 2019 close 3143
Decline From All Time High 19%
10 Year Return 35%
5 Year Low 2629 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 20%
The highest all time monthly close in the Straits Times was 3862 in October, of
2007. The May, 2019 close was 3143. That's a decline of 719 points or 19%
below the Straits Times Stock Index all time high. The Straits Times Stock Index
is up 35% over the last 10 years. It has lost 8% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 257.20 points lower than the April, 2019 close of 3400,
resulting in a 7.56% decline for May.
The 5 year market low for the Straits Times Index was 2629 in January of 2016.
The May, 2019 close at 3143 represents a 20% gain since January, 2016.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Straits Times Singapore
Index back to April, 1988. All calculations are based on the monthly market
close in the Straits Times, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Straits Times Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Straits Times Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the Straits Times Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1988  2019: Straits Times Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 8% / 25th 126% / 7% / 54%
2 Year 2% / 31st 138% / 12% / 56%
4 Year 7% / 24th 167% / 20% / 60%
8 Year 1% / 28th 181% / 35% / 40%
16 Year 142% / 87th 260% / 79% / 2%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2017  5/2019), the Straits Times Stock Index
returned 2%. That period scored in the 31st percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 31% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1988. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1988 returned 138%. The worst returned 56%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 12%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Straits Times Stock Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 363
2 Year: 351
4 Year: 327
8 Year: 279
16 Year: 183
Dividends are not included.
Updated Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2019; All rights reserved.
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Monthly close for the Straits Times Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Straits Times Stock Index  5 Year History

Straits Times Stock Forecast
Straits Times Stock Index: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

2.68 0.35 0.48





July Aug Sept

2.58 3.37 0.03






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: Straits Times Index
1/14
1/2017
Straits Times Index Stock Market Forecast




Target Month: Forecast: HDTFA:




Forecast for the monthly close of the Straits Times Stock Index for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.


