Market Commentary 13122
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the DAX Stock Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a DAX Index of 8549. The table shows
a HDTFA of 1681 which suggests that the May, 2014 DAX could easily close
anywhere between 10229 and 6868. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other
stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the
NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in
the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 7988 (May, 2007)
April, 2013 close 7914
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 180%
5 Year Low 3844 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 106%
The highest all time monthly close in the DAX Stock Index was 7988 in May, of
2007. The April, 2013 close was 7914. That's a decline of 74 points or 1%
below the DAX Index all time high. The DAX Stock Index is up 180% over the
last 10 years. It has gained 17% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 118.40 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 7795,
resulting in a 1.52% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the DAX Index was 3844 in February of 2009. The
April, 2013 close at 7913.71 represents a 106% gain since February, 2009.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the DAX back to December,
1990. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the DAX Stock
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the DAX Index. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the DAX
Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous
insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table above
presents historical data on the DAX Index categorized by the months of the
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1990 - 2013: DAX Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 17% / 55th 79% / 10% / -49%
2 Year 5% / 27th 132% / 22% / -60%
4 Year 66% / 62nd 229% / 49% / -50%
8 Year 85% / 67th 384% / 93% / -34%
16 Year 116% / 0 PCTL 401% / 229% / 116%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the DAX Stock Index returned
5%. That period scored in the 27th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 27% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1990. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1990 returned 132%. The worst returned -60%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 22%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the DAX Stock Index are as follows:
1 Year: 258
2 Year: 246
4 Year: 222
8 Year: 174
16 Year: 78
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the DAX Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is shown in
green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|DAX Stock Index - 5 Year History
|DAX Stock Index Forecast (Germany)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the DAX |
Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|DAX Stock Market Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: DAX Stock Index
|DAX Stock Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
|Market Trend Analysis
Fourteen topics... For example: Which political party has been better for the economy historically?
Best & Worst case scenarios for equities based on historical precedence... 100 year chart of the
stock market with GNP, inflation, interest rates, home values and the dollar on one chart... List of
high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
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