Market Commentary 19208
April, 2015 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a NASDAQ 100 Stock Index of
5162. The table shows a HDTFA of 1117 which suggests that the May, 2016
NASDAQ 100 could easily close anywhere between 6279 and 4044. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the NASDAQ equity
index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 4% that the
NASDAQ 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2025 close
compared to April, 2015 close).
Down at least 20% 4%
Down at least 10% 5%
Up at least 10% 89%
Up at least 20% 79%
Up at least 30% 68%
Up at least 40% 57%
Up at least 50% 47%
Up at least 100% 20%
Up at least 150% 5%
Up at least 200% NS
NS - Not Significant
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the NASDAQ 100 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
NASDAQ 100. The latest ranking of the NASDAQ is 4. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The index with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see these
forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then
select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the best rank (10) was 3/2009,
when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1237. The last time that the NASDAQ
100 received a rank of 9 was 8/2010, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at
1767. The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the worst rank (1) was
2/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1908. The last time that the
NASDAQ 100 received a rank of 2 was 6/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index
closed at 1830. Last month's close for the NASDAQ 100 is in the Market
Highlights section below.
All Time High 4441 (February, 2015)
April, 2015 close 4414
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 211%
5 Year Low 1739 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 154%
The highest all time monthly close in the NASDAQ was 4441 in February, of
2015. The April, 2015 close was 4414. That's a decline of 26 points or 1%
below the NASDAQ 100 all time high. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up 211% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 23% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 80.56 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 4334,
resulting in a 1.86% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index was 1739 in June of
2010. The April, 2015 close at 4414.25 represents a 154% gain since June,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NASDAQ 100 back to
March, 1971. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NASDAQ, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NASDAQ 100. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
NASDAQ 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index categorized by
the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1971 - 2015: NASDAQ 100 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 23% / 66th 122% / 14% / -67%
2 Year 53% / 79th 274% / 30% / -77%
4 Year 84% / 67th 621% / 71% / -67%
8 Year 136% / 51st 1263% / 185% / -59%
16 Year 107% / 0 PCTL 3407% / 667% / 95%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the NASDAQ 100 Index returned
53%. That period scored in the 79th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 79% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1971. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1971 returned 274%. The worst returned -77%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 30%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the NASDAQ 100 Index are as
1 Year: 519
2 Year: 507
4 Year: 483
8 Year: 435
16 Year: 339
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2015; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|NASDAQ 100 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|NASDAQ 100 Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the NASDAQ |
100 Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.|
|NASDAQ 100 Stock Market Index Forecast
NASDAQ 100 Index Forecast
|NASDAQ 100: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Stock Index