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Market Commentary  19219
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the FTSE 100 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a FTSE 100 Stock Index of 7122. The
table shows a HDTFA of 920 which suggests that the May, 2016 FTSE 100
could easily close anywhere between 8042 and 6203. Links to Forecasts for
twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the FTSE 100
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the FTSE 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2025 close
compared to April, 2015 close).

                             PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          4%
Down                               6%
Up                                   93%
Up at least 10%               92%
Up at least 20%               85%
Up at least 30%               77%
Up at least 40%               69%
Up at least 50%               65%
Up at least 100%             45%
Up at least 150%             32%
Up at least 200%             10%



Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the FTSE 100 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the FTSE 100
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the FTSE
100. The latest ranking of the FTSE 100 Index is 6. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The index with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see these
forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then
select the index you are interested in. The forecast for the FTSE 100 Index is
designed for British Pound based investors . Returns for investors not based in
the British Pound will be affected by currency fluctuations.

The last time that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
12/1982, when the FTSE 100 Index closed at 593. The last time that the FTSE
100 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the FTSE 100 Index
closed at 3261. The last time that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received the worst
rank (1) was 11/2000, when the FTSE 100 Index closed at 4807. The last time
that the FTSE 100 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was 4/2001, when the
FTSE 100 Index closed at 4484. Last month's close for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index is in the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          6961 (April, 2015)
April, 2015 close                    6961

10 Year Return                       42%
5 Year Low                             4917 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low            42%

The highest all time monthly close in the FTSE 100 Index was 6961 in April, of
2015.  The FTSE 100 Index is up 42% over the last 10 years. It has gained 3%
over the last 12 months.

The April close was 187.60 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 6773,
resulting in a 2.77% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the FTSE 100 Stock Index was 4917 in June of 2010.
The April, 2015 close at 6960.6 represents a 42% gain since June, 2010.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the FTSE 100 back to April,
1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the FTSE 100
Index, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the FTSE 100 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the FTSE 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the FTSE 100 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1935 - 2015: FTSE 100 / FT 30

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     3% / 38th                    129% / 7% / -55%
  2 Year                     8% / 41st                    106% / 14% / -69%
  4 Year                     15% / 40th                  201% / 28% / -52%
  8 Year                     8% / 18th                    283% / 67% / -48%
  16 Year                   13% / 4th                    886% / 196% / -26%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the FTSE 100 / FT 30 returned
8%. That period scored in the 41st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 41% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1935. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1935 returned 106%. The worst returned -69%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 14%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the FTSE 100 / FT 30 are as
follows:
1 Year: 946
2 Year: 934
4 Year: 910
8 Year: 862
16 Year: 766

The FTSE 100 Index begins in March, 1984. To provide a longer and more
varied history for Rolling Periods, the FT 30 (July, 1935 - March, 1984) has
been appended to the data series.  Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2015: FTSE 100 / FT 30

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     3% / 34th                    129% / 8% / -55%
  2 Year                     8% / 34th                    106% / 16% / -69%
  4 Year                     15% / 37th                  201% / 31% / -52%
  8 Year                     8% / 22nd                    283% / 75% / -48%
  16 Year                   13% / 1st                    886% / 258% / 5%

The number of periods in each category for the FTSE 100 / FT 30 are as
follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412

The FTSE 100 Index begins in March, 1984. To provide a longer and more
varied history for Rolling Periods, the FT 30 (1965 - March, 1984) has been
appended to the data series.  Dividends are not included.










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FTSE 100 Stock Index Forecast (UK)
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the FTSE 100
Stock Index for the target month indicated.
May 2016
7122
920
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
FTSE 100 Stock Market Index  Forecast
FTSE 100 Stock Forecast
FTSE 100: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
-0.96
0.69
0.96
April
May
June
1.33
-0.43
-0.71
July
Aug
Sept
0.30
-0.10
-0.11
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.40
0.17
2.67
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: FTSE 100 Stock Index