Market Commentary 13128
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Hang Seng Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Hang Seng Stock Index of 25012.
The table shows a HDTFA of 4881 which suggests that the May, 2014 Hang
Seng could easily close anywhere between 29893 and 20131. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Hang Seng
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the Hang Seng Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 90%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 80%
Up at least 100% 62%
Up at least 150% 45%
Up at least 200% 18%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Hang Seng is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the Hang
Seng. The latest ranking of the Hang Seng Index is 7. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is designed
for Hong Kong Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based in the
Hong Kong Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 3/2009,
when the Hang Seng Index closed at 13576. The last time that the Hang Seng
Stock Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2007, when the Hang Seng
Index closed at 31638. The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a
rank of 2 was 11/2007, when the Hang Seng Index closed at 27371. Last
month's close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
All Time High 31638 (October, 2007)
April, 2013 close 22737
Decline From All Time High 28%
10 Year Return 163%
5 Year Low 12812 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 77%
The highest all time monthly close in the Hang Seng Index was 31638 in
October, of 2007. The April, 2013 close was 22737. That's a decline of 8901
points or 28% below the Hang Seng Stock Index all time high. The Hang Seng
Index is up 163% over the last 10 years. It has gained 8% over the last 12
The April close was 437.38 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 22300,
resulting in a 1.96% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Hang Seng Stock Index was 12812 in February of
2009. The April, 2013 close at 22737.01 represents a 77% gain since
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Hang Seng back to June,
1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Hang Seng
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Hang Seng Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Hang Seng Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1987 - 2013: Hang Seng Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 8% / 42nd 110% / 12% / -59%
2 Year -4% / 28th 168% / 25% / -42%
4 Year 46% / 55th 326% / 58% / -37%
8 Year 64% / 42nd 571% / 126% / -20%
16 Year 70% / 1st 688% / 293% / 68%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Hang Seng Index returned
-4%. That period scored in the 28th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 28% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1987. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1987 returned 168%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 25%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Hang Seng Index are as follows:
1 Year: 300
2 Year: 288
4 Year: 264
8 Year: 216
16 Year: 120
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Hang Seng Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Hang Seng Stock Index Forecast (Hong Kong)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Hang |
Seng Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|Hang Seng Stock Market Index Forecast
|Hang Seng: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown
above. Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Hang Seng Stock Index
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
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Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
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