Market Commentary  19226
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1

The 12 month forecast for the S&P Global Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a S&P Global Stock Index of 83. The
table shows a HDTFA of 10 which suggests that the May, 2016 S&P Global 100
could easily close anywhere between 94 and 73. Links to Forecasts for
twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.

A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.

Part 2

All Time High                          86 (October, 2007)
April, 2015 close                    79
Decline From All Time High     8%
10 Year Return                       32%
5 Year Low                             51 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low            56%

The highest all time monthly close in the S&P Global Index was 86 in October,
of 2007. The April, 2015 close was 79. That's a decline of 7 points or 8% below
the S&P Global Stock Index all time high.  The S&P Global Index is up 32% over
the last 10 years. It has lost 1% over the last 12 months.

The April close was 2.14 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 77,
resulting in a 2.78% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the S&P Global Stock Index was 51 in June of 2010.
The April, 2015 close at 79.06 represents a 56% gain since June, 2010.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P Global 100 back to
January, 2001. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P Global Index, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P Global Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the S&P Global Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.

Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 2000 - 2015: S&P Global Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     -1% / 33rd                  47% / 3% / -46%
  2 Year                     13% / 50th                  70% / 8% / -47%
  4 Year                     15% / 49th                  76% / 14% / -37%
  8 Year                     1% / 17th                    60% / 10% / -40%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the S&P Global Index returned
13%. That period scored in the 50th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 50% of all rolling 2 year periods since 2000. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 2000 returned 70%. The worst returned -47%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 8%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ

The number of periods in each category for the S&P Global Index are as follows:
1 Year: 161
2 Year: 149
4 Year: 125
8 Year: 77
16 Year: 0

Dividends are not included.

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Monthly close for the S&P Global Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
S&P Global Stock Index - 5 Year History
S&P Global Stock Index Forecast
Target Month
Forecast for the monthly close of the S&P
Global Stock Index for the target month
May 2016
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
S&P Global Stock Market Index Forecast
S&P Global Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P Global Stock Index