Market Commentary 13130
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P Global Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a S&P Global Stock Index of 70. The
table shows a HDTFA of 11 which suggests that the May, 2014 S&P Global 100
could easily close anywhere between 81 and 59. Links to Forecasts for
twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the
NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in
the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 86 (October, 2007)
April, 2013 close 70
Decline From All Time High 18%
10 Year Return 53%
5 Year Low 39 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 80%
The highest all time monthly close in the S&P Global Index was 86 in October,
of 2007. The April, 2013 close was 70. That's a decline of 15 points or 18%
below the S&P Global Stock Index all time high. The S&P Global Index is up
53% over the last 10 years. It has gained 13% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 2.44 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 68,
resulting in a 3.60% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the S&P Global Stock Index was 39 in February of
2009. The April, 2013 close at 70.23 represents a 80% gain since February,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P Global 100 back to
January, 2001. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P Global Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P Global Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the S&P Global Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 2000 - 2013: S&P Global Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 13% / 72nd 47% / 2% / -46%
2 Year 2% / 36th 70% / 5% / -47%
4 Year 52% / 82nd 76% / 10% / -37%
8 Year 18% / 76th 60% / 9% / -40%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the S&P Global Index returned
2%. That period scored in the 36th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 36% of all rolling 2 year periods since 2000. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 2000 returned 70%. The worst returned -47%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 5%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P Global Index are as follows:
1 Year: 137
2 Year: 125
4 Year: 101
8 Year: 53
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the S&P Global Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|S&P Global Stock Index - 5 Year History
|S&P Global Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the S&P |
Global Stock Index for the target month
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|S&P Global Stock Market Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P Global Stock Index
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
|Market Trend Analysis
Fourteen topics... For example: Which political party has been better for the economy historically?
Best & Worst case scenarios for equities based on historical precedence... 100 year chart of the
stock market with GNP, inflation, interest rates, home values and the dollar on one chart... List of
high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
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