Market Commentary 13120
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
12839. The table shows a HDTFA of 1906 which suggests that the May, 2014
S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 14744 and 10933. Links
to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 77%
Up at least 100% 55%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is
designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based
in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
April, 2013 close 12457
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 95%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 53%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
April, 2013 close was 12457. That's a decline of 2258 points or 15% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 95% over the last
10 years. It has gained 1% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 293.40 points lower than the March, 2013 close of 12750,
resulting in a 2.30% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 12456.5 represents a 53% gain
since February, 2009.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999 - 2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 1% / 39th 43% / 4% / -40%
2 Year -11% / 29th 74% / 10% / -41%
4 Year 34% / 62nd 113% / 26% / -24%
8 Year 29% / 17th 123% / 52% / -4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned -11%. That period scored in the 29th percentile, meaning that it
scored better than 29% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling
2 Year period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned -41%. The
average rolling 2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
1 Year: 149
2 Year: 137
4 Year: 113
8 Year: 65
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the S&P/TSX Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|TSX Composite Stock Index - 5 Year History
|TSX Composite Stock Index Forecast (Canada)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the TSX |
Composite Stock Index for the target month
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|TSX Composite Index Stock Market Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: TSX Composite Index
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
|Market Trend Analysis
Fourteen topics... For example: Which political party has been better for the economy historically?
Best & Worst case scenarios for equities based on historical precedence... 100 year chart of the
stock market with GNP, inflation, interest rates, home values and the dollar on one chart... List of
high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
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