Market Commentary 14034
September, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
13763. The table shows a HDTFA of 1999 which suggests that the October,
2014 S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 15762 and 11763.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years
(September, 2023 close compared to September, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 78%
Up at least 100% 55%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the S&P 500. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite
Index is designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors
not based in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
September, 2013 close 12787
Decline From All Time High 13%
10 Year Return 70%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 57%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
September, 2013 close was 12787. That's a decline of 1928 points or 13%
below the TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 70%
over the last 10 years. It has gained 4% over the last 12 months.
The September close was 133.29 points higher than the August, 2013 close of
12654, resulting in a 1.05% rise in September.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The September, 2013 close at 12787.19 represents a 57%
gain since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 4% / 43rd 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 10% / 52nd 74% / 9% / 41%
4 Year 12% / 52nd 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 22% / 11th 123% / 50% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (10/2011  9/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 10%. That period scored in the 52nd percentile, meaning that it
scored better than 52% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling
2 Year period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The
average rolling 2 year period returned 9%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 154
2 Year: 142
4 Year: 118
8 Year: 70
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13958
August, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
13300. The table shows a HDTFA of 1928 which suggests that the September,
2014 S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 15229 and 11372.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (August,
2023 close compared to August, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 78%
Up at least 100% 56%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is
designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based
in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
August, 2013 close 12654
Decline From All Time High 14%
10 Year Return 75%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 56%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
August, 2013 close was 12654. That's a decline of 2061 points or 14% below
the TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 75% over the
last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The August close was 167.26 points higher than the July, 2013 close of 12487,
resulting in a 1.34% rise in August.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The August, 2013 close at 12653.9 represents a 56% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 47th 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 1% / 39th 74% / 9% / 41%
4 Year 16% / 55th 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 23% / 11th 123% / 51% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2011  8/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 1%. That period scored in the 39th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 39% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 9%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 153
2 Year: 141
4 Year: 117
8 Year: 69
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13882
July, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
13306. The table shows a HDTFA of 1949 which suggests that the August,
2014 S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 15254 and 11357.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (July, 2023
close compared to July, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 78%
Up at least 100% 56%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite
Index is designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors
not based in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
July, 2013 close 12487
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 78%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 54%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
July, 2013 close was 12487. That's a decline of 2228 points or 15% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 78% over the last
10 years. It has gained 7% over the last 12 months.
The July close was 357.53 points higher than the June, 2013 close of 12129,
resulting in a 2.95% rise in July.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The July, 2013 close at 12486.64 represents a 54% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 7% / 49th 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 4% / 36th 74% / 10% / 41%
4 Year 16% / 54th 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 27% / 16th 123% / 51% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (8/2011  7/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 4%. That period scored in the 36th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 36% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 152
2 Year: 140
4 Year: 116
8 Year: 68
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13272
June, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
12385. The table shows a HDTFA of 1826 which suggests that the July, 2014
S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 14211 and 10559. Links
to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (June, 2023
close compared to June, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 77%
Up at least 100% 56%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is
designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based
in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
June, 2013 close 12129
Decline From All Time High 18%
10 Year Return 75%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 49%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
June, 2013 close was 12129. That's a decline of 2586 points or 18% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 75% over the last
10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The June close was 521.31 points lower than the May, 2013 close of 12650,
resulting in a 4.12% decline for June.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The June, 2013 close at 12129.11 represents a 49% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 49th 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 9% / 33rd 74% / 10% / 41%
4 Year 17% / 56th 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 30% / 18th 123% / 51% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (7/2011  6/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 9%. That period scored in the 33rd percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 33% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 151
2 Year: 139
4 Year: 115
8 Year: 67
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13196
May, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
13501. The table shows a HDTFA of 1998 which suggests that the June, 2014
S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 15499 and 11503. Links
to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (May, 2023
close compared to May, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 77%
Up at least 100% 56%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is
designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based
in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
May, 2013 close 12650
Decline From All Time High 14%
10 Year Return 90%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 56%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
May, 2013 close was 12650. That's a decline of 2064 points or 14% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 90% over the last
10 years. It has gained 10% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 193.92 points higher than the April, 2013 close of 12457,
resulting in a 1.56% rise in May.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The May, 2013 close at 12650.42 represents a 56% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 10% / 56th 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 8% / 33rd 74% / 10% / 41%
4 Year 22% / 58th 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 31% / 18th 123% / 52% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2011  5/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 8%. That period scored in the 33rd percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 33% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 150
2 Year: 138
4 Year: 114
8 Year: 66
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13120
April, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
12839. The table shows a HDTFA of 1906 which suggests that the May, 2014
S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 14744 and 10933. Links
to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 77%
Up at least 100% 55%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 6. ForecastChart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the NASDAQ 100. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts,
click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the
index you are interested in. The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is
designed for Canadian Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based
in the Canadian Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14715 (May, 2008)
April, 2013 close 12457
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 95%
5 Year Low 8123 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 53%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 14715 in May, of 2008. The
April, 2013 close was 12457. That's a decline of 2258 points or 15% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 95% over the last
10 years. It has gained 1% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 293.40 points lower than the March, 2013 close of 12750,
resulting in a 2.30% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 8123 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 12456.5 represents a 53% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999  2013: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 1% / 39th 43% / 4% / 40%
2 Year 11% / 29th 74% / 10% / 41%
4 Year 34% / 62nd 113% / 26% / 24%
8 Year 29% / 17th 123% / 52% / 4%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011  4/2013), the TSX Composite Index
returned 11%. That period scored in the 29th percentile, meaning that it
scored better than 29% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling
2 Year period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned 41%. The
average rolling 2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 149
2 Year: 137
4 Year: 113
8 Year: 65
16 Year: 0
Dividends are not included.
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Monthly close for the S&P/TSX Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
TSX Composite Stock Index  5 Year History

TSX Composite Stock Index Forecast (Canada)





Forecast for the monthly close of the TSX Composite Stock Index for the target month indicated.





Updated Tuesday, December 17, 2013.



TSX Composite Index Stock Market Forecast

TSX Composite Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: TSX Composite Index
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