Market Commentary 13108
April, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14707. The table shows a HDTFA of 1894 which suggests that the May, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16601 and 12812.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 76%
Up at least 40% 68%
Up at least 50% 63%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14840 (April, 2013)
April, 2013 close 14840
10 Year Return 75%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 110%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 14840 in April, of 2013. The
Dow Industrial Index is up 75% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over
the last 12 months.
The April close was 261.26 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 14579,
resulting in a 1.79% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 14839.8 represents a 110% gain
since February, 2009.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 60th 129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year 16% / 53rd 124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year 82% / 88th 268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year 46% / 52nd 467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year 112% / 47th 1003% / 179% / -54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 53rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 53% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1264
16 Year: 1168
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 62nd 51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year 16% / 52nd 100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year 82% / 85th 150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year 46% / 49th 277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year 112% / 22nd 1003% / 291% / -13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
April, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14707. The table shows a HDTFA of 1894 which suggests that the May, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16601 and 12812.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 76%
Up at least 40% 68%
Up at least 50% 63%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14840 (April, 2013)
April, 2013 close 14840
10 Year Return 75%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 110%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 14840 in April, of 2013. The
Dow Industrial Index is up 75% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over
the last 12 months.
The April close was 261.26 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 14579,
resulting in a 1.79% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 14839.8 represents a 110% gain
since February, 2009.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 60th 129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year 16% / 53rd 124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year 82% / 88th 268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year 46% / 52nd 467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year 112% / 47th 1003% / 179% / -54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 53rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 53% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1264
16 Year: 1168
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 62nd 51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year 16% / 52nd 100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year 82% / 85th 150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year 46% / 49th 277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year 112% / 22nd 1003% / 291% / -13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - 5 Year History |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Market Index Forecast |
| 11500 |
| 13000 |
| 14500 |
| 10000 |
| 8500 |
| Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
| 7000 |
| 5500 |
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Jones Industrial Index
| Forecasts, charts and analysis... |
|
Market Trend Analysis
Fourteen topics... For example: Which political party has been better for the economy historically?
Best & Worst case scenarios for equities based on historical precedence... 100 year chart of the
stock market with GNP, inflation, interest rates, home values and the dollar on one chart... List of
high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
Fourteen topics... For example: Which political party has been better for the economy historically?
Best & Worst case scenarios for equities based on historical precedence... 100 year chart of the
stock market with GNP, inflation, interest rates, home values and the dollar on one chart... List of
high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
| |||||
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