Market Commentary 17680
October, 2014 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
19202. The table shows a HDTFA of 2364 which suggests that the November,
2015 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 21567 and
16838. Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (October,
2024 close compared to October, 2014 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 11%
Up 89%
Up at least 10% 79%
Up at least 20% 69%
Up at least 30% 58%
Up at least 40% 49%
Up at least 50% 45%
Up at least 100% 24%
Up at least 150% 14%
Up at least 200% 2%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and
the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 17391 (October, 2014)
October, 2014 close 17391
10 Year Return 73%
5 Year Low 9774 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 78%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 17391 in October, of 2014.
The Dow Industrial Index is up 73% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12%
over the last 12 months.
The October close was 347.62 points higher than the September, 2014 close of
17043, resulting in a 2.04% rise in October.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 9774 in June
of 2010. The October, 2014 close at 17390.52 represents a 78% gain since
June, 2010.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2014: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 59th 129% / 7% / 72%
2 Year 33% / 75th 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 56% / 77th 268% / 30% / 84%
8 Year 44% / 50th 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 102% / 44th 1003% / 178% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (11/2012  10/2014), the Dow Industrial Index
returned 33%. That period scored in the 75th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 75% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1282
16 Year: 1186
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1964  2014: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 61st 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 33% / 80th 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 56% / 74th 150% / 32% / 34%
8 Year 44% / 46th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 102% / 20th 1003% / 290% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 598
2 Year: 586
4 Year: 562
8 Year: 514
16 Year: 418
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 14022
September, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14939. The table shows a HDTFA of 1945 which suggests that the October,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16884 and
12995. Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (September,
2023 close compared to September, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 77%
Up at least 40% 69%
Up at least 50% 64%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200%
in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400 and the
Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at
the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 15500 (July, 2013)
September, 2013 close 15130
Decline From All Time High 2%
10 Year Return 63%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 114%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013. The
September, 2013 close was 15130. That's a decline of 370 points or 2% below
the Dow Industrials all time high. The Dow Industrial Index is up 63% over the
last 10 years. It has gained 11% over the last 12 months.
The September close was 319.39 points higher than the August, 2013 close of
14810, resulting in a 2.16% rise in September.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The September, 2013 close at 15129.7 represents a 114%
gain since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 11% / 57th 129% / 8% / 72%
2 Year 39% / 81st 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 56% / 77th 268% / 30% / 84%
8 Year 43% / 50th 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 90% / 41st 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (10/2011  9/2013), the Dow Industrial Index
returned 39%. That period scored in the 81st percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 81% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1269
16 Year: 1173
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 11% / 59th 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 39% / 85th 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 56% / 75th 150% / 32% / 34%
8 Year 43% / 48th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 90% / 20th 1003% / 289% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 597
2 Year: 585
4 Year: 561
8 Year: 513
16 Year: 417
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13946
August, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14282. The table shows a HDTFA of 1866 which suggests that the September,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16147 and
12416. Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (August,
2023 close compared to August, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 76%
Up at least 40% 69%
Up at least 50% 64%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 15500 (July, 2013)
August, 2013 close 14810
Decline From All Time High 4%
10 Year Return 57%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 110%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013. The
August, 2013 close was 14810. That's a decline of 689 points or 4% below the
Dow Industrials all time high. The Dow Industrial Index is up 57% over the last
10 years. It has gained 13% over the last 12 months.
The August close was 689.23 points lower than the July, 2013 close of 15500,
resulting in a 4.45% decline for August.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The August, 2013 close at 14810.31 represents a 110%
gain since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 13% / 61st 129% / 8% / 72%
2 Year 28% / 70th 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 56% / 77th 268% / 30% / 84%
8 Year 41% / 49th 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 94% / 42nd 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2011  8/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
28%. That period scored in the 70th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 70% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1268
16 Year: 1172
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 13% / 63rd 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 28% / 75th 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 56% / 75th 150% / 32% / 34%
8 Year 41% / 47th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 94% / 20th 1003% / 289% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 596
2 Year: 584
4 Year: 560
8 Year: 512
16 Year: 416
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13870
July, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
15152. The table shows a HDTFA of 1971 which suggests that the August,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 17123 and
13182. Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (July, 2023
close compared to July, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 12%
Up 88%
Up at least 10% 77%
Up at least 20% 67%
Up at least 30% 56%
Up at least 40% 47%
Up at least 50% 42%
Up at least 100% 24%
Up at least 150% 14%
Up at least 200% 2%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400
and the Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast
link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 15500 (July, 2013)
July, 2013 close 15500
10 Year Return 68%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 119%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013. The
Dow Industrial Index is up 68% over the last 10 years. It has gained 19% over
the last 12 months.
The July close was 589.94 points higher than the June, 2013 close of 14910,
resulting in a 3.96% rise in July.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The July, 2013 close at 15499.54 represents a 119% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 19% / 73rd 129% / 7% / 72%
2 Year 28% / 71st 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 69% / 84th 268% / 30% / 84%
8 Year 46% / 52nd 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 88% / 40th 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (8/2011  7/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
28%. That period scored in the 71st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 71% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1267
16 Year: 1171
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 19% / 78th 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 28% / 75th 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 69% / 81st 150% / 32% / 34%
8 Year 46% / 49th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 88% / 20th 1003% / 289% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 595
2 Year: 583
4 Year: 559
8 Year: 511
16 Year: 415
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13260
June, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14639. The table shows a HDTFA of 1895 which suggests that the July, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16534 and 12744.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (June, 2023
close compared to June, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 12%
Up 88%
Up at least 10% 77%
Up at least 20% 67%
Up at least 30% 56%
Up at least 40% 46%
Up at least 50% 42%
Up at least 100% 24%
Up at least 150% 14%
Up at least 200% 2%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 15116 (May, 2013)
June, 2013 close 14910
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 66%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 111%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15116 in May, of 2013. The
June, 2013 close was 14910. That's a decline of 206 points or 1% below the
Dow Industrials all time high. The Dow Industrial Index is up 66% over the last
10 years. It has gained 16% over the last 12 months.
The June close was 205.97 points lower than the May, 2013 close of 15116,
resulting in a 1.36% decline for June.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The June, 2013 close at 14909.6 represents a 111% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 16% / 66th 129% / 7% / 72%
2 Year 20% / 60th 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 77% / 86th 268% / 29% / 84%
8 Year 45% / 51st 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 94% / 42nd 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (7/2011  6/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
20%. That period scored in the 60th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 60% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1266
16 Year: 1170
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 16% / 70th 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 20% / 62nd 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 77% / 83rd 150% / 32% / 34%
8 Year 45% / 48th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 94% / 20th 1003% / 290% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 594
2 Year: 582
4 Year: 558
8 Year: 510
16 Year: 414
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13184
May, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14800. The table shows a HDTFA of 1907 which suggests that the June, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16707 and 12893.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (May, 2023
close compared to May, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 12%
Up 88%
Up at least 10% 77%
Up at least 20% 67%
Up at least 30% 56%
Up at least 40% 46%
Up at least 50% 42%
Up at least 100% 24%
Up at least 150% 14%
Up at least 200% 2%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 15116 (May, 2013)
May, 2013 close 15116
10 Year Return 71%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 114%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15116 in May, of 2013. The
Dow Industrial Index is up 71% over the last 10 years. It has gained 22% over
the last 12 months.
The May close was 275.77 points higher than the April, 2013 close of 14840,
resulting in a 1.86% rise in May.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The May, 2013 close at 15115.57 represents a 114% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 22% / 77th 129% / 7% / 72%
2 Year 20% / 61st 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 78% / 86th 268% / 29% / 84%
8 Year 44% / 51st 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 106% / 45th 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2011  5/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
20%. That period scored in the 61st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 61% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1265
16 Year: 1169
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 22% / 82nd 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 20% / 63rd 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 78% / 83rd 150% / 31% / 34%
8 Year 44% / 48th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 106% / 21st 1003% / 290% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 593
2 Year: 581
4 Year: 557
8 Year: 509
16 Year: 413
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13108
April, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14707. The table shows a HDTFA of 1894 which suggests that the May, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16601 and 12812.
Links to Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 76%
Up at least 40% 68%
Up at least 50% 63%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 14840 (April, 2013)
April, 2013 close 14840
10 Year Return 75%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 110%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 14840 in April, of 2013. The
Dow Industrial Index is up 75% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over
the last 12 months.
The April close was 261.26 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 14579,
resulting in a 1.79% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 14839.8 represents a 110% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 60th 129% / 7% / 72%
2 Year 16% / 53rd 124% / 15% / 84%
4 Year 82% / 88th 268% / 29% / 84%
8 Year 46% / 52nd 467% / 64% / 65%
16 Year 112% / 47th 1003% / 179% / 54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011  4/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 53rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 53% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned 84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1264
16 Year: 1168
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1963  2013: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 12% / 62nd 51% / 7% / 42%
2 Year 16% / 52nd 100% / 15% / 42%
4 Year 82% / 85th 150% / 31% / 34%
8 Year 46% / 49th 277% / 81% / 33%
16 Year 112% / 22nd 1003% / 291% / 13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
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Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Forecast





Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the target month indicated.





Updated Wednesday, November 19, 2014.



Dow Jones Industrials: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

2.86 0.23 0.81





July Aug Sept

1.25 0.66 0.44






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Monthly close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)  5 Year History

Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Market Index Forecast

Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Jones Industrial Index
1/10
1/2013
MultiIndex Charts
To see correlations between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and many other indexes
like the Gross National Product, Oil Prices or Unemployment Rates, click Dow Jones
Indicators.
 Statistical Behavioral Correlations
 Evidence for Predictive Characteristics of Various Indexes.