Market Commentary  14022
September, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14939. The table shows a HDTFA of 1945 which suggests that the October,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16884 and
12995. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (September,
2023 close compared to September, 2013 close).

                           PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          4%
Down                               7%
Up                                   93%
Up at least 10%               91%
Up at least 20%               85%
Up at least 30%               77%
Up at least 40%               69%
Up at least 50%               64%
Up at least 100%             45%
Up at least 150%             32%
Up at least 200%             10%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200%
in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400 and the
Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at
the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          15500 (July, 2013)
September, 2013 close          15130
Decline From All Time High     2%
10 Year Return                       63%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            114%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013. The
September, 2013 close was 15130. That's a decline of 370 points or 2% below
the Dow Industrials all time high.  The Dow Industrial Index is up 63% over the
last 10 years. It has gained 11% over the last 12 months.

The September close was 319.39 points higher than the August, 2013 close of
14810, resulting in a 2.16% rise in September.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The September, 2013 close at 15129.7 represents a 114%
gain since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     11% / 57th                  129% / 8% / -72%
2 Year                     39% / 81st                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     56% / 77th                  268% / 30% / -84%
8 Year                     43% / 50th                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   90% / 41st                  1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (10/2011 - 9/2013), the Dow Industrial Index
returned 39%. That period scored in the 81st percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 81% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1269
16 Year: 1173

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     11% / 59th                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     39% / 85th                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     56% / 75th                  150% / 32% / -34%
8 Year                     43% / 48th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   90% / 20th                  1003% / 289% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 597
2 Year: 585
4 Year: 561
8 Year: 513
16 Year: 417

Dividends are not included.











































Market Commentary  13946
August, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14282. The table shows a HDTFA of 1866 which suggests that the September,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16147 and
12416. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (August,
2023 close compared to August, 2013 close).

                        PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          4%
Down                               7%
Up                                   93%
Up at least 10%               91%
Up at least 20%               85%
Up at least 30%               76%
Up at least 40%               69%
Up at least 50%               64%
Up at least 100%             45%
Up at least 150%             32%
Up at least 200%             10%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          15500 (July, 2013)
August, 2013 close                14810
Decline From All Time High     4%
10 Year Return                       57%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            110%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013. The
August, 2013 close was 14810. That's a decline of 689 points or 4% below the
Dow Industrials all time high.  The Dow Industrial Index is up 57% over the last
10 years. It has gained 13% over the last 12 months.

The August close was 689.23 points lower than the July, 2013 close of 15500,
resulting in a 4.45% decline for August.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The August, 2013 close at 14810.31 represents a 110%
gain since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     13% / 61st                  129% / 8% / -72%
2 Year                     28% / 70th                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     56% / 77th                  268% / 30% / -84%
8 Year                     41% / 49th                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   94% / 42nd                  1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2011 - 8/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
28%. That period scored in the 70th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 70% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1268
16 Year: 1172

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     13% / 63rd                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     28% / 75th                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     56% / 75th                  150% / 32% / -34%
8 Year                     41% / 47th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   94% / 20th                  1003% / 289% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 596
2 Year: 584
4 Year: 560
8 Year: 512
16 Year: 416

Dividends are not included.











































Market Commentary  13870
July, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
15152. The table shows a HDTFA of 1971 which suggests that the August,
2014 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 17123 and
13182. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (July, 2023
close compared to July, 2013 close).

                      PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          6%
Down                               12%
Up                                   88%
Up at least 10%               77%
Up at least 20%               67%
Up at least 30%               56%
Up at least 40%               47%
Up at least 50%               42%
Up at least 100%             24%
Up at least 150%             14%
Up at least 200%             2%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400
and the Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast
link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          15500 (July, 2013)
July, 2013 close                     15500

10 Year Return                       68%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            119%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15500 in July, of 2013.  The
Dow Industrial Index is up 68% over the last 10 years. It has gained 19% over
the last 12 months.

The July close was 589.94 points higher than the June, 2013 close of 14910,
resulting in a 3.96% rise in July.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The July, 2013 close at 15499.54 represents a 119% gain
since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     19% / 73rd                  129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year                     28% / 71st                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     69% / 84th                  268% / 30% / -84%
8 Year                     46% / 52nd                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   88% / 40th                  1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (8/2011 - 7/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
28%. That period scored in the 71st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 71% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1267
16 Year: 1171

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     19% / 78th                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     28% / 75th                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     69% / 81st                  150% / 32% / -34%
8 Year                     46% / 49th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   88% / 20th                  1003% / 289% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 595
2 Year: 583
4 Year: 559
8 Year: 511
16 Year: 415

Dividends are not included.











































Market Commentary  13260
June, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14639. The table shows a HDTFA of 1895 which suggests that the July, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16534 and 12744.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (June, 2023
close compared to June, 2013 close).

                    PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          6%
Down                               12%
Up                                   88%
Up at least 10%               77%
Up at least 20%               67%
Up at least 30%               56%
Up at least 40%               46%
Up at least 50%               42%
Up at least 100%             24%
Up at least 150%             14%
Up at least 200%             2%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          15116 (May, 2013)
June, 2013 close                    14910
Decline From All Time High     1%
10 Year Return                       66%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            111%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15116 in May, of 2013. The
June, 2013 close was 14910. That's a decline of 206 points or 1% below the
Dow Industrials all time high.  The Dow Industrial Index is up 66% over the last
10 years. It has gained 16% over the last 12 months.

The June close was 205.97 points lower than the May, 2013 close of 15116,
resulting in a 1.36% decline for June.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The June, 2013 close at 14909.6 represents a 111% gain
since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     16% / 66th                  129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year                     20% / 60th                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     77% / 86th                  268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year                     45% / 51st                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   94% / 42nd                  1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (7/2011 - 6/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
20%. That period scored in the 60th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 60% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1266
16 Year: 1170

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     16% / 70th                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     20% / 62nd                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     77% / 83rd                  150% / 32% / -34%
8 Year                     45% / 48th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   94% / 20th                  1003% / 290% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 594
2 Year: 582
4 Year: 558
8 Year: 510
16 Year: 414

Dividends are not included.











































Market Commentary  13184
May, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14800. The table shows a HDTFA of 1907 which suggests that the June, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16707 and 12893.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (May, 2023
close compared to May, 2013 close).

                PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          6%
Down                               12%
Up                                   88%
Up at least 10%               77%
Up at least 20%               67%
Up at least 30%               56%
Up at least 40%               46%
Up at least 50%               42%
Up at least 100%             24%
Up at least 150%             14%
Up at least 200%             2%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          15116 (May, 2013)
May, 2013 close                    15116

10 Year Return                       71%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            114%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 15116 in May, of 2013.  The
Dow Industrial Index is up 71% over the last 10 years. It has gained 22% over
the last 12 months.

The May close was 275.77 points higher than the April, 2013 close of 14840,
resulting in a 1.86% rise in May.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The May, 2013 close at 15115.57 represents a 114% gain
since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     22% / 77th                  129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year                     20% / 61st                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     78% / 86th                  268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year                     44% / 51st                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   106% / 45th               1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2011 - 5/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
20%. That period scored in the 61st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 61% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1265
16 Year: 1169

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     22% / 82nd                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     20% / 63rd                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     78% / 83rd                  150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year                     44% / 48th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   106% / 21st               1003% / 290% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 593
2 Year: 581
4 Year: 557
8 Year: 509
16 Year: 413

Dividends are not included.











































Market Commentary  13108
April, 2013 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
14707. The table shows a HDTFA of 1894 which suggests that the May, 2014
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 16601 and 12812.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).

        PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          4%
Down                               7%
Up                                   93%
Up at least 10%               91%
Up at least 20%               85%
Up at least 30%               76%
Up at least 40%               68%
Up at least 50%               63%
Up at least 100%             45%
Up at least 150%             32%
Up at least 200%             10%



Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.




Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          14840 (April, 2013)
April, 2013 close                    14840

10 Year Return                       75%
5 Year Low                             7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            110%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 14840 in April, of 2013.  The
Dow Industrial Index is up 75% over the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over
the last 12 months.

The April close was 261.26 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 14579,
resulting in a 1.79% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 14839.8 represents a 110% gain
since February, 2009.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.

In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.



























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     12% / 60th                  129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year                     16% / 53rd                  124% / 15% / -84%
4 Year                     82% / 88th                  268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year                     46% / 52nd                  467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year                   112% / 47th               1003% / 179% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Dow Industrial Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 53rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 53% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1264
16 Year: 1168

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1963 - 2013: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     12% / 62nd                  51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year                     16% / 52nd                  100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year                     82% / 85th                  150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year                     46% / 49th                  277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year                   112% / 22nd               1003% / 291% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412

Dividends are not included.












































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Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the target
month indicated.
Oct 2014
14939
1945
Updated Tuesday, December 17, 2013.
Dow Jones Industrials: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
0.30
-0.17
1.29
April
May
June
2.86
0.23
-0.81
July
Aug
Sept
1.25
-0.66
-0.44
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.63
1.88
1.44
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - 5 Year History
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Market Index Forecast
11500
13000
14500
10000
8500
Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) Forecast
7000
5500
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Jones Industrial Index
Forecasts, charts and analysis...
1/08
1/2009
1/2010
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/15