Market Commentary  19204
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1

The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
18627. The table shows a HDTFA of 2210 which suggests that the May, 2016
Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 20837 and 16417.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Dow Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close).

Down at least 20%          3%
Down at least 10%          6%
Down                               11%
Up                                   89%
Up at least 10%               79%
Up at least 20%               70%
Up at least 30%               59%
Up at least 40%               50%
Up at least 50%               46%
Up at least 100%             24%
Up at least 150%             14%
Up at least 200%             2%

Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above.  Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index.  Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Dow Industrial Average is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10
and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow
Jones Industrial Average . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the Dow Industrial Average. The latest ranking of the DJIA is 5.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The index with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes
with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the
S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To
see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.

Part 2

All Time High                          18133 (February, 2015)
April, 2015 close                    17841
Decline From All Time High     2%
10 Year Return                       75%
5 Year Low                             9774 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low            83%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 18133 in February, of 2015.
The April, 2015 close was 17841. That's a decline of 292 points or 2% below
the Dow Industrials all time high.  The Dow Industrial Index is up 75% over the
last 10 years. It has gained 8% over the last 12 months.

The April close was 64.40 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 17776,
resulting in a 0.36% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 9774 in June
of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 17840.52 represents a 83% gain since June,

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.

Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2015: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     8% / 51st                    129% / 7% / -72%
  2 Year                     20% / 60th                  124% / 15% / -84%
  4 Year                     39% / 62nd                  268% / 30% / -84%
  8 Year                     37% / 46th                  467% / 64% / -65%
  16 Year                   65% / 35th                  1003% / 178% / -54%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the Dow Industrial Index returned
20%. That period scored in the 60th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 60% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 15%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1311
8 Year: 1288
16 Year: 1192

Dividends are not included.

ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2015: Dow Industrial Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     8% / 50th                    51% / 7% / -42%
  2 Year                     20% / 62nd                  100% / 15% / -42%
  4 Year                     39% / 60th                  150% / 33% / -34%
  8 Year                     37% / 41st                  277% / 83% / -33%
  16 Year                   65% / 14th                  1003% / 296% / -13%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412

Dividends are not included.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Forecast
Target Month
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the target
month indicated.
May 2016
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
Dow Jones Industrials: Historical Monthly Change
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - 5 Year History
Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Market Index Forecast
Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Jones Industrial Index
Multi-Index Charts
To see correlations between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and many other indexes
like the Gross National Product, Oil Prices or Unemployment Rates, click
Dow Jones

  • Statistical Behavioral Correlations
  • Evidence for Predictive Characteristics of Various Indexes.