Market Commentary 14027
September, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1660. The table shows a HDTFA of 243 which suggests that the October,
2014 S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1904 and 1417. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (September, 2023
close compared to September, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200%
in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400 and the
Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at
the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1686 (July, 2013)
September, 2013 close 1682
Decline From All Time High 0%
10 Year Return 69%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 129%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1686 in July, of 2013. The September, 2013 close was 1682. That's a
decline of 4 points or 0% below the S&P 500 Index all time high. The S&P 500
Index is up 69% over the last 10 years. It has gained 15% over the last 12
months.
The September close was 48.58 points higher than the August, 2013 close of
1633, resulting in a 2.97% rise in September.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The September, 2013 close at 1681.55 represents a 129%
gain since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 15% / 66th 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 49% / 89th 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 59% / 75th 172% / 37% / 39%
8 Year 37% / 33rd 272% / 84% / 41%
16 Year 78% / 20th 946% / 249% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (10/2011  9/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned
49%. That period scored in the 89th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 89% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 753
2 Year: 741
4 Year: 717
8 Year: 669
16 Year: 573
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13951
August, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1575. The table shows a HDTFA of 231 which suggests that the September,
2014 S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1806 and 1344. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (August, 2023
close compared to August, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1686 (July, 2013)
August, 2013 close 1633
Decline From All Time High 3%
10 Year Return 62%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 122%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1686 in July, of 2013. The August, 2013 close was 1633. That's a decline
of 53 points or 3% below the S&P 500 Index all time high. The S&P 500 Index is
up 62% over the last 10 years. It has gained 16% over the last 12 months.
The August close was 52.76 points lower than the July, 2013 close of 1686,
resulting in a 3.13% decline for August.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The August, 2013 close at 1632.97 represents a 122% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 16% / 68th 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 34% / 78th 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 60% / 76th 172% / 37% / 39%
8 Year 34% / 31st 272% / 84% / 41%
16 Year 82% / 21st 946% / 249% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (9/2011  8/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned 34%.
That period scored in the 78th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
78% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 752
2 Year: 740
4 Year: 716
8 Year: 668
16 Year: 572
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13875
July, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1648. The table shows a HDTFA of 240 which suggests that the August,
2014 S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1888 and 1408. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (July, 2023 close
compared to July, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, the S&P MidCap 400
and the Russell 2000. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast
link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1686 (July, 2013)
July, 2013 close 1686
10 Year Return 70%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 129%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1686 in July, of 2013. The S&P 500 Index is up 70% over the last 10
years. It has gained 22% over the last 12 months.
The July close was 79.45 points higher than the June, 2013 close of 1606,
resulting in a 4.95% rise in July.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The July, 2013 close at 1685.73 represents a 129% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 22% / 79th 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 30% / 73rd 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 71% / 83rd 172% / 37% / 39%
8 Year 37% / 33rd 272% / 85% / 41%
16 Year 77% / 19th 946% / 249% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (8/2011  7/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned 30%.
That period scored in the 73rd percentile, meaning that it scored better than
73% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 751
2 Year: 739
4 Year: 715
8 Year: 667
16 Year: 571
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13265
June, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1577. The table shows a HDTFA of 228 which suggests that the July, 2014
S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1805 and 1349. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (June, 2023 close
compared to June, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1631 (May, 2013)
June, 2013 close 1606
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 65%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 119%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1631 in May, of 2013. The June, 2013 close was 1606. That's a decline of
24 points or 1% below the S&P 500 Index all time high. The S&P 500 Index is
up 65% over the last 10 years. It has gained 18% over the last 12 months.
The June close was 24.46 points lower than the May, 2013 close of 1631,
resulting in a 1.50% decline for June.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The June, 2013 close at 1606.28 represents a 119% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 18% / 72nd 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 22% / 61st 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 75% / 84th 172% / 37% / 39%
8 Year 35% / 32nd 272% / 85% / 41%
16 Year 81% / 21st 946% / 250% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (7/2011  6/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned 22%.
That period scored in the 61st percentile, meaning that it scored better than
61% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 750
2 Year: 738
4 Year: 714
8 Year: 666
16 Year: 570
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13189
May, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1597. The table shows a HDTFA of 230 which suggests that the June, 2014
S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1827 and 1367. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (May, 2023 close
compared to May, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1631 (May, 2013)
May, 2013 close 1631
10 Year Return 69%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 122%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1631 in May, of 2013. The S&P 500 Index is up 69% over the last 10
years. It has gained 24% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 33.17 points higher than the April, 2013 close of 1598,
resulting in a 2.08% rise in May.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The May, 2013 close at 1630.74 represents a 122% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 24% / 83rd 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 21% / 60th 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 77% / 86th 172% / 37% / 39%
8 Year 37% / 33rd 272% / 85% / 41%
16 Year 92% / 23rd 946% / 250% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2011  5/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned 21%.
That period scored in the 60th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
60% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 749
2 Year: 737
4 Year: 713
8 Year: 665
16 Year: 569
Dividends are not included.
Market Commentary 13113
April, 2013 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 500 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
of 1583. The table shows a HDTFA of 228 which suggests that the May, 2014
S&P 500 could easily close anywhere between 1811 and 1355. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
500 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time
ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the S&P 500 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023 close
compared to April, 2013 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 90%
Up at least 20% 89%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 88%
Up at least 50% 84%
Up at least 100% 70%
Up at least 150% 51%
Up at least 200% 25%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P 500 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst
is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
500 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
S&P 500. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index is 8.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the S&P 500 Index received the best rank (10) was 6/2009,
when the S&P 500 Index closed at 919. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1426. The
last time that the S&P 500 Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when
the S&P 500 Index closed at 1429. The last time that the S&P 500 Index
received a rank of 2 was 1/2001, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1366. Last
month's close for the S&P 500 Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1598 (April, 2013)
April, 2013 close 1598
10 Year Return 74%
5 Year Low 735 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 117%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
was 1598 in April, of 2013. The S&P 500 Index is up 74% over the last 10
years. It has gained 14% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 28.38 points higher than the March, 2013 close of 1569,
resulting in a 1.81% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was 735 in
February of 2009. The April, 2013 close at 1597.57 represents a 117% gain
since February, 2009.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 500 back to February,
1950. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Standard &
Poor's 500 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 500 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 500 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1950  2013: S&P 500 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 14% / 65th 53% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 17% / 50th 87% / 17% / 48%
4 Year 83% / 88th 172% / 36% / 39%
8 Year 38% / 34th 272% / 85% / 41%
16 Year 99% / 25th 946% / 250% / 24%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011  4/2013), the S&P 500 Index returned 17%.
That period scored in the 50th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
50% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1950. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1950 returned 87%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 17%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 500 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 748
2 Year: 736
4 Year: 712
8 Year: 664
16 Year: 568
Dividends are not included.
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Monthly close for the S&P 500 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index  5 Year History

Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index Forecast





Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index for the target month indicated.





Updated Tuesday, December 17, 2013.



S&P 500 Stock Market Index Forecast

S&P 500 Index Forecast
S&P 500: Historical Monthly Change











April May June

2.23 0.41 0.31





July Aug Sept

0.55 0.57 0.01






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: S&P 500 Stock Index
Forecasts, charts and analysis...

1/08
1/2011