Market Commentary 13121
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Nikkei 225 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Nikkei 225 Stock Index of 12775.
The table shows a HDTFA of 2494 which suggests that the May, 2014 Nikkei
225 could easily close anywhere between 15269 and 10281. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market
Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index and the
NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in
the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 38424 (May, 1990)
April, 2013 close 13861
Decline From All Time High 64%
10 Year Return 74%
5 Year Low 8110 (March, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 71%
The highest all time monthly close in the Nikkei 225 Index was 38424 in May, of
1990. The April, 2013 close was 13861. That's a decline of 24563 points or
64% below the Nikkei 225 Stock Index all time high. The Nikkei 225 Index is up
74% over the last 10 years. It has gained 46% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 1462.95 points higher than the March, 2013 close of
12398, resulting in a 11.80% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index was 8110 in March of
2009. The April, 2013 close at 13860.86 represents a 71% gain since March,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Nikkei 225 back to
September, 1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Nikkei 225 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Nikkei 225 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Nikkei 225 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Nikkei 225 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1984 - 2013: Nikkei 225 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 46% / 96th 57% / 2% / -42%
2 Year 41% / 80th 110% / 5% / -55%
4 Year 57% / 85th 200% / 6% / -52%
8 Year 18% / 84th 84% / -14% / -59%
16 Year -24% / 80th 71% / -39% / -64%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Nikkei 225 Index returned
41%. That period scored in the 80th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 80% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1984. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1984 returned 110%. The worst returned -55%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 5%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Nikkei 225 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 333
2 Year: 321
4 Year: 297
8 Year: 249
16 Year: 153
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Nikkei 225 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Nikkei 225 Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Nikkei |
225 Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|Nikkei 225 Stock Market Index Forecast
|Nikkei 225: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Nikkei 225 Stock Index
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
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high dividend yield stocks... Chart showing recent stock trends and similarities with the Great
Depression. Table showing long term historical returns for 23 stock market indexes (large cap, mid
cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
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