Market Commentary 19207
April, 2015 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Composite Average
of 6520. The table shows a HDTFA of 819 which suggests that the May, 2016
Dow Composite Index could easily close anywhere between 7339 and 5702.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 6474 (December, 2014)
April, 2015 close 6308
Decline From All Time High 3%
10 Year Return 93%
5 Year Low 3358 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 88%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJCA was 6474 in December, of 2014.
The April, 2015 close was 6308. That's a decline of 165 points or 3% below the
Dow Composite Average all time high. The Dow Composite Index is up 93%
over the last 10 years. It has gained 9% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 19.99 points lower than the March, 2015 close of 6328,
resulting in a 0.32% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Composite Average was 3358 in June
of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 6308.13 represents a 88% gain since June,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Composite Index back
to January, 1981. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
DJCA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Composite
Average. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Dow Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Composite Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1980 - 2015: Dow Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 9% / 39th 54% / 10% / -41%
2 Year 23% / 54th 76% / 21% / -42%
4 Year 43% / 45th 130% / 44% / -29%
8 Year 41% / 15th 229% / 97% / -24%
16 Year 93% / 0 PCTL 809% / 308% / 93%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the Dow Composite Index
returned 23%. That period scored in the 54th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 54% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1980. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1980 returned 76%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 21%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Composite Index are as
1 Year: 401
2 Year: 389
4 Year: 365
8 Year: 317
16 Year: 221
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2015; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Composite Average (DJCA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Dow Jones Composite Average (DJCA) - 5 Year History
|Dow Jones Composite Average (DJCA) Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow |
Jones Composite Average (DJCA) for the
target month indicated.
|Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.|
|Dow Composite Stock Market Index Forecast
|Dow Composite Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Composite Index