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Market Commentary  27739
March, 2018 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 11409. The table shows a HDTFA of 1823 which suggests that the
April, 2019 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere between
13232 and 9586. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be
found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (March, 2028
close compared to March, 2018 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow
Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link
at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          10972 (January, 2018)
March, 2018 close                 10394
Decline From All Time High     5%
10 Year Return                       117%
5 Year Low                             6174 (June, 2013)
Gain From 5 Year Low            68%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 10972 in January, of 2018.
The March, 2018 close was 10394. That's a decline of 578 points or 5% below
the Dow Transports all time high.  The Dow Transportation Index is up 117%
over the last 10 years. It has gained 14% over the last 12 months.

The March close was 63.53 points higher than the February, 2018 close of
10331, resulting in a 0.61% rise in March.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 6174 in
June of 2013. The March, 2018 close at 10394.25 represents a 68% gain since
June, 2013.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2018: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
 1 Year                     14% / 58th                  262% / 8% / -84%
 2 Year                     31% / 65th                  227% / 16% / -90%
 4 Year                     37% / 49th                  256% / 35% / -85%
 8 Year                     138% / 75th               355% / 81% / -88%
 16 Year                   256% / 61st               984% / 242% / -72%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (4/2016 - 3/2018), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 31%. That period scored in the 65th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 65% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 1062
2 Year: 1050
4 Year: 1026
8 Year: 978
16 Year: 882

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1968 - 2018: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
 1 Year                     14% / 56th                  83% / 10% / -45%
 2 Year                     31% / 61st                  103% / 20% / -54%
 4 Year                     37% / 40th                  151% / 45% / -36%
 8 Year                     138% / 66th               355% / 110% / -21%
 16 Year                   256% / 43rd               984% / 354% / 65%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 591
2 Year: 579
4 Year: 555
8 Year: 507
16 Year: 411

Dividends are not included.










Updated Wednesday, April 4, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) - 5 Year History
Dow Transportation Index (DJTA) Forecast
9000
11000
13000
7000
5000
3000
Dow Jones Transports: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
0.19
-1.00
3.01
April
May
June
3.16
0.27
-0.84
July
Aug
Sept
0.80
-3.26
-1.46
Oct
Nov
Dec
3.45
2.76
1.46
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Transportation Index
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
Dow Transportation Index Stock Market Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
April, 2019
11409
1823
 
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Transportation Average
(DJTA) for the target month indicated.   See commentary and 10 year
forecast below.