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Market Commentary  19205
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 9151. The table shows a HDTFA of 1523 which suggests that the
May, 2016 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere between
10674 and 7628. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be
found by clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          9198 (November, 2014)
April, 2015 close                    8593
Decline From All Time High     7%
10 Year Return                       151%
5 Year Low                             4008 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low            114%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 9198 in November, of 2014.
The April, 2015 close was 8593. That's a decline of 605 points or 7% below the
Dow Transports all time high.  The Dow Transportation Index is up 151% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 12% over the last 12 months.

The April close was 148.52 points lower than the March, 2015 close of 8741,
resulting in a 1.70% decline for April.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 4008 in
June of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 8592.89 represents a 114% gain since
June, 2010.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2015: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     12% / 56th                  262% / 9% / -84%
  2 Year                     39% / 72nd                  227% / 16% / -90%
  4 Year                     56% / 65th                  256% / 34% / -85%
  8 Year                     71% / 50th                  355% / 80% / -88%
  16 Year                   136% / 39th               984% / 243% / -72%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 39%. That period scored in the 72nd percentile, meaning that it
scored better than 72% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling
2 Year period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The
average rolling 2 year period returned 16%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 1027
2 Year: 1015
4 Year: 991
8 Year: 943
16 Year: 847

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2015: Dow Transportation Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     12% / 53rd                  83% / 10% / -45%
  2 Year                     39% / 72nd                  103% / 20% / -54%
  4 Year                     56% / 61st                  151% / 40% / -47%
  8 Year                     71% / 41st                  355% / 100% / -40%
  16 Year                   136% / 18th               984% / 343% / 26%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412

Dividends are not included.










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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) - 5 Year History
Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow
Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) for the
target month indicated.
May 2016
9151
1523
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
Dow Transportation Index Stock Market Forecast
Dow Transportation Index (DJTA) Forecast
9000
11000
13000
7000
5000
3000
Dow Jones Transports: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
0.19
-1.00
3.01
April
May
June
3.16
0.27
-0.62
July
Aug
Sept
1.10
-2.57
-1.46
Oct
Nov
Dec
3.33
2.14
1.58
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Transportation Index
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17