Market Commentary 19206
April, 2015 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Utility Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Utility Average of 576.
The table shows a HDTFA of 89 which suggests that the May, 2016 Dow Utility
Average could easily close anywhere between 665 and 486. Links to Forecasts
for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market
Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 637 (January, 2015)
April, 2015 close 587
Decline From All Time High 8%
10 Year Return 58%
5 Year Low 358 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 64%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJUA was 637 in January, of 2015.
The April, 2015 close was 587. That's a decline of 51 points or 8% below the
Dow Utilities all time high. The Dow Utility Index is up 58% over the last 10
years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 0.45 points lower than the March, 2015 close of 587,
resulting in a 0.08% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Utility Average was 358 in June of
2010. The April, 2015 close at 586.63 represents a 64% gain since June, 2010.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Dow Utility Average back to
February, 1929. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
DJUA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Utilities. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Utility Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Utility Average categorized by
the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1929  2015: Dow Utility Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 52nd 103% / 4% / 72%
2 Year 9% / 46th 119% / 9% / 83%
4 Year 37% / 67th 295% / 19% / 82%
8 Year 13% / 31st 290% / 42% / 86%
16 Year 88% / 46th 605% / 109% / 76%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013  4/2015), the Dow Utility Index returned 9%.
That period scored in the 46th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
46% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1929. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1929 returned 119%. The worst returned 83%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 9%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 1024
2 Year: 1012
4 Year: 988
8 Year: 940
16 Year: 844
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1965  2015: Dow Utility Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 52nd 46% / 4% / 41%
2 Year 9% / 51st 78% / 8% / 50%
4 Year 37% / 73rd 142% / 16% / 45%
8 Year 13% / 29th 116% / 34% / 51%
16 Year 88% / 44th 225% / 88% / 35%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 592
2 Year: 580
4 Year: 556
8 Year: 508
16 Year: 412
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2015; All rights reserved.
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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)  5 Year History

Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) Forecast





Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) for the target month indicated.





Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.



Dow Utility Index Stock Market Forecast

Dow Utility Index (DJUA) Forecast
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Dow Jones Utilities: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

2.91 0.20 0.38





July Aug Sept

0.21 1.33 0.22






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: Dow Utility Index
1/10
1/2013