Market Commentary 19221
April, 2015 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Mexico IPC Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Mexico IPC Stock Index of 58186.
The table shows a HDTFA of 10676 which suggests that the May, 2016 Mexico
IPC could easily close anywhere between 68861 and 47510. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market
Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 45628 (August, 2014)
April, 2015 close 44582
Decline From All Time High 2%
10 Year Return 261%
5 Year Low 31157 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 43%
The highest all time monthly close in the IPC was 45628 in August, of 2014. The
April, 2015 close was 44582. That's a decline of 1046 points or 2% below the
Mexico IPC Index all time high. The Mexico IPC Index is up 261% over the last
10 years. It has gained 10% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 857.61 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 43725,
resulting in a 1.96% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Mexico IPC Stock Index was 31157 in June of
2010. The April, 2015 close at 44582.39 represents a 43% gain since June,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Mexico IPC back to
February, 1992. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
IPC, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Mexico IPC Index.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Mexico IPC Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Mexico IPC Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1992 - 2015: Mexico IPC Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 10% / 37th 86% / 19% / -41%
2 Year 5% / 16th 147% / 41% / -37%
4 Year 21% / 6th 376% / 100% / 4%
8 Year 54% / 1st 611% / 283% / 52%
16 Year 714% / 4th 2359% / 1223% / 673%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the Mexico IPC Index returned
5%. That period scored in the 16th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 16% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1992. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1992 returned 147%. The worst returned -37%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 41%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Mexico IPC Index are as follows:
1 Year: 268
2 Year: 256
4 Year: 232
8 Year: 184
16 Year: 88
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2015; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Mexico IPC Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Mexico IPC Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Mexico IPC Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Mexico |
IPC Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.|
|Mexico IPC Stock Market Index Forecast
Mexico IPC Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Mexico IPC Stock Index
|Mexico IPC Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.