Market Commentary 31489
May, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Mexico IPC Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Mexico IPC Stock Index of 52098.
The table shows a HDTFA of 10891 which suggests that the June, 2020 Mexico
IPC could easily close anywhere between 62989 and 41208. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market
Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
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broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (May, 2029 close
compared to May, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
All Time High 51210 (August, 2017)
May, 2019 close 43346
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 78%
5 Year Low 40951 (January, 2015)
Gain From 5 Year Low 6%
The highest all time monthly close in the IPC was 51210 in August, of 2017. The
May, 2019 close was 43346. That's a decline of 7865 points or 15% below the
Mexico IPC Index all time high. The Mexico IPC Index is up 78% over the last 10
years. It has lost 3% over the last 12 months.
The May close was 1251.50 points lower than the April, 2019 close of 44597,
resulting in a 2.81% decline for May.
The 5 year market low for the Mexico IPC Stock Index was 40951 in January of
2015. The May, 2019 close at 43345.82 represents a 6% gain since January,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Mexico IPC back to
February, 1992. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
IPC, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Mexico IPC Index.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Mexico IPC Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Mexico IPC Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1992 - 2019: Mexico IPC Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -3% / 21st 86% / 16% / -41%
2 Year -11% / 3rd 147% / 35% / -37%
4 Year -3% / 0 PCTL 376% / 85% / -6%
8 Year 22% / 2nd 611% / 237% / 8%
16 Year 537% / 3rd 2359% / 1017% / 480%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (6/2017 - 5/2019), the Mexico IPC Index returned
-11%. That period scored in the 3rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 3% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1992. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1992 returned 147%. The worst returned -37%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 35%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Mexico IPC Index are as follows:
1 Year: 317
2 Year: 305
4 Year: 281
8 Year: 233
16 Year: 137
Dividends are not included.
Updated Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Mexico IPC Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Mexico IPC Stock Index - 5 Year History
Mexico IPC Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Mexico IPC Stock Index
|Mexico IPC Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
|Mexico IPC Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Mexico IPC Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.