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Market Commentary  19211
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NYSE Composite Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a NYSE Composite Stock Index
of 11652. The table shows a HDTFA of 1521 which suggests that the May,
2016 NYSE Composite could easily close anywhere between 13173 and 10132.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          11063 (February, 2015)
April, 2015 close                    11050
Decline From All Time High     0%
10 Year Return                       58%
5 Year Low                             6470 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low            71%

The highest all time monthly close in the NYSE Composite Index was 11063 in
February, of 2015. The April, 2015 close was 11050. That's a decline of 13
points or 0% below the NYSE Composite Stock Index all time high.  The NYSE
Composite Index is up 58% over the last 10 years. It has gained 4% over the
last 12 months.

The April close was 150.55 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 10899,
resulting in a 1.38% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the NYSE Composite Stock Index was 6470 in June of
2010. The April, 2015 close at 11049.74 represents a 71% gain since June,
2010.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NYSE Composite back to
January, 1966. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NYSE Composite Index, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NYSE Composite
Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the NYSE Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the NYSE Composite
Stock Index categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2015: NYSE Composite Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     4% / 34th                    55% / 8% / -48%
  2 Year                     19% / 55th                  83% / 16% / -49%
  4 Year                     27% / 44th                  137% / 33% / -37%
  8 Year                     15% / 17th                  230% / 80% / -30%
  16 Year                   65% / 3rd                    819% / 278% / 32%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the NYSE Composite Index
returned 19%. That period scored in the 55th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 55% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1965. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1965 returned 83%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 16%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the NYSE Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 581
2 Year: 569
4 Year: 545
8 Year: 497
16 Year: 401

Dividends are not included.











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Monthly close for the NYSE Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
NYSE Composite Stock Index - 5 Year History
NYSE Composite Stock Index Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the NYSE
Composite Stock Index for the target month
indicated.
May 2016
11652
1521
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
NYSE Composite Stock Market Index Forecast
8500
10000
11500
7000
4000
5500
NYSE Composite Index Forecast
NYSE Composite: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
0.16
-0.31
1.26
April
May
June
2.44
0.41
-0.50
July
Aug
Sept
0.52
-0.61
0.20
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.25
1.18
1.99
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: NYSE Stock Index
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17