Market Commentary 19212
April, 2015 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Russell 1000 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Russell 1000 Stock Index of
1228. The table shows a HDTFA of 183 which suggests that the May, 2016
Russell 1000 could easily close anywhere between 1411 and 1044. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 1000 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Russell 1000
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Russell 1000 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 6%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 92%
Up at least 20% 85%
Up at least 30% 77%
Up at least 40% 69%
Up at least 50% 65%
Up at least 100% 45%
Up at least 150% 32%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Russell 1000 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 1000
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
Russell 1000. The latest ranking of the Russell 1000 Index is 6.
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at ForecastChart.com. The index with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes
with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the
S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To
see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Russell 1000 Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
6/2009, when the Russell 1000 Index closed at 502. The last time that the
Russell 1000 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 12/2012, when the Russell
1000 Index closed at 790. The last time that the Russell 1000 Stock Index
received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000, when the Russell 1000 Index closed at
784. The last time that the Russell 1000 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was
1/2001, when the Russell 1000 Index closed at 727. Last month's close for the
Russell 1000 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 1173 (February, 2015)
April, 2015 close 1164
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 87%
5 Year Low 567 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 105%
The highest all time monthly close in the Russell 1000 Index was 1173 in
February, of 2015. The April, 2015 close was 1164. That's a decline of 9 points
or 1% below the Russell 1000 Stock Index all time high. The Russell 1000 Index
is up 87% over the last 10 years. It has gained 11% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 7.08 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 1157,
resulting in a 0.61% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Russell 1000 Stock Index was 567 in June of
2010. The April, 2015 close at 1164.03 represents a 105% gain since June,
2010.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the Russell 1000 back to
January, 1993. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Russell 1000 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Russell 1000 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Russell 1000 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Russell 1000 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1992  2015: Russell 1000 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 11% / 45th 52% / 9% / 45%
2 Year 31% / 63rd 84% / 20% / 48%
4 Year 53% / 58th 160% / 39% / 38%
8 Year 44% / 55th 208% / 48% / 40%
16 Year 65% / 0 PCTL 186% / 117% / 65%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013  4/2015), the Russell 1000 Index returned
31%. That period scored in the 63rd percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 63% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1992. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1992 returned 84%. The worst returned 48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 20%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Russell 1000 Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 257
2 Year: 245
4 Year: 221
8 Year: 173
16 Year: 77
Dividends are not included.
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Monthly close for the Russell 1000 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Russell 1000 Stock Index  5 Year History

Russell 1000 Stock Index Forecast





Forecast for the monthly close of the Russell 1000 Stock Index for the target month indicated.





Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.



Russell 1000 Stock Market Index Forecast

Russell 1000 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Russell 1000 Stock Index
Russell 1000 Index: Historical Monthly Change











April May June

1.59 0.73 0.55





July Aug Sept

0.71 0.32 0.87






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.







1/10
1/2013