Market Commentary 13118
April, 2013 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Russell 3000 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Russell 3000 Stock Index of 932.
The table shows a HDTFA of 132 which suggests that the May, 2014 Russell
3000 could easily close anywhere between 1064 and 799. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock Market
Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A forecast for the primary trend in the U.S. Stock Market is updated in this site
with a three month time delay. Artificial Intelligence is used to identify major
turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull
Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system
performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and also in real time since
going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market,
click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market
& Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 3000 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Russell 3000
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 5%
that the Russell 3000 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (April, 2023
close compared to April, 2013 close).
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 90%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 80%
Up at least 100% 62%
Up at least 150% 45%
Up at least 200% 18%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Russell 3000 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 3000
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
Russell 3000. The latest ranking of the Russell 3000 Index is 7.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P TSX Index
and the NASDAQ 100. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap
400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Russell 3000 Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
6/2009, when the Russell 3000 Index closed at 536. The last time that the
Russell 3000 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 7/2012, when the Russell
3000 Index closed at 811. The last time that the Russell 3000 Stock Index
received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000, when the Russell 3000 Index closed at
792. The last time that the Russell 3000 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was
1/2001, when the Russell 3000 Index closed at 750. Last month's close for the
Russell 3000 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
All Time High 952 (March, 2013)
April, 2013 close 950
Decline From All Time High 0%
10 Year Return 86%
5 Year Low 425 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 124%
The highest all time monthly close in the Russell 3000 Index was 952 in March,
of 2013. The April, 2013 close was 950. That's a decline of 2 points or 0%
below the Russell 3000 Stock Index all time high. The Russell 3000 Index is up
86% over the last 10 years. It has gained 15% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 1.71 points lower than the March, 2013 close of 952,
resulting in a 0.18% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the Russell 3000 Stock Index was 425 in February of
2009. The April, 2013 close at 949.83 represents a 124% gain since February,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Russell 3000 back to
October, 1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Russell 3000 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Russell 3000 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Russell 3000 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Russell 3000 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Analysis link above. It's under the
chart. The table of contents for Market Trend Analysis will open. Click the link to
the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the table of contents.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1987 - 2013: Russell 3000 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 15% / 64th 53% / 9% / -45%
2 Year 16% / 40th 86% / 18% / -48%
4 Year 87% / 83rd 151% / 38% / -38%
8 Year 44% / 40th 264% / 93% / -39%
16 Year 122% / 21st 373% / 218% / 71%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2011 - 4/2013), the Russell 3000 Index returned
16%. That period scored in the 40th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 40% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1987. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1987 returned 86%. The worst returned -48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 18%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Russell 3000 Index are as
1 Year: 296
2 Year: 284
4 Year: 260
8 Year: 212
16 Year: 116
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
Monthly close for the Russell 3000 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Russell 3000 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Russell 3000 Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Russell |
3000 Stock Index for the target month indicated.
|Updated Thursday, May 9, 2013.|
|Russell 3000 Stock Market Index Forecast
|Russell 3000: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Russell 3000 Stock Index
|Forecasts, charts and analysis...
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cap, small cap, foreign , domestic & global).
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