Market Commentary 19210
April, 2015 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 100 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. ForecastChart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index
of 957. The table shows a HDTFA of 132 which suggests that the May, 2016
S&P 100 Index could easily close anywhere between 1088 and 825. Links to
Forecasts for twentytwo other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
ForecastChart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 925 (February, 2015)
April, 2015 close 916
Decline From All Time High 1%
10 Year Return 66%
5 Year Low 468 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 96%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index
was 925 in February, of 2015. The April, 2015 close was 916. That's a decline
of 9 points or 1% below the S&P 100 Index all time high. The S&P 100 Index is
up 66% over the last 10 years. It has gained 10% over the last 12 months.
The April close was 14.30 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 902,
resulting in a 1.59% rise in April.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index was 468 in
June of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 916.29 represents a 96% gain since
June, 2010.
ForecastChart.com's historical research covers the S&P 100 Index back to
September, 1982. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the S&P 100 Index. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
S&P 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1982  2015: S&P 100 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 10% / 46th 51% / 10% / 43%
2 Year 27% / 63rd 79% / 20% / 46%
4 Year 51% / 56th 193% / 44% / 39%
8 Year 35% / 33rd 332% / 96% / 46%
16 Year 36% / 0 PCTL 942% / 301% / 36%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013  4/2015), the S&P 100 Index returned 27%.
That period scored in the 63rd percentile, meaning that it scored better than
63% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1982. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1982 returned 79%. The worst returned 46%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 20%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000  2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000  December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000  February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000  2001 period is January, 2001 
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned 30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned 50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (50%
minus 30% equals 20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 100 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 381
2 Year: 369
4 Year: 345
8 Year: 297
16 Year: 201
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008  2015; All rights reserved.
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Monthly close for the S&P 100 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index  5 Year History

Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index Forecast





Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & Poor's 100 Stock Index for the target month indicated.





Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.



S&P 100 Stock Market Index Forecast

S&P 100 Index
S&P 100 Index: Historical Monthly Change










April May June

2.11 0.24 0.16





July Aug Sept

0.91 0.70 0.19






Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above. Dividends are not included.






Stock Market Forecast: S&P 100 Stock Index
1/10
1/2013