Market Commentary 19222
April, 2015 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 400 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 of
1613. The table shows a HDTFA of 241 which suggests that the May, 2016 S&P
MidCap 400 could easily close anywhere between 1854 and 1373. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
MidCap 400. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
MidCap 400 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point
in time ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table
immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a
probability of 19% that the S&P 400 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years
(April, 2025 close compared to April, 2015 close).
Down at least 20% 19%
Down at least 10% 23%
Up at least 10% 59%
Up at least 20% 44%
Up at least 30% 31%
Up at least 40% 23%
Up at least 50% 13%
Up at least 100% NS
Up at least 150% NS
Up at least 200% NS
NS - Not Significant
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P MidCap 400 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and
the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard
& Poor's MidCap 400 . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P MidCap 400. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's MidCap
400 Stock Index is 1. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12
of the 23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The index with
the highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P
TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and
the NASDAQ 100. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link
at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Standard & Poor's 400 received the worst rank (1) was
4/2015, when the S&P 400 Index closed at 1500. The last time that the
Standard & Poor's 400 received a rank of 2 was 1/2015, when the S&P 400
Index closed at 1435. Last month's close for the Standard & Poor's 400 is in
the Market Highlights section below.
All Time High 1524 (March, 2015)
April, 2015 close 1500
Decline From All Time High 2%
10 Year Return 137%
5 Year Low 712 (June, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 111%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock
Index was 1524 in March, of 2015. The April, 2015 close was 1500. That's a
decline of 24 points or 2% below the Standard & Poor's 400 all time high. The
S&P 400 Index is up 137% over the last 10 years. It has gained 11% over the
last 12 months.
The April close was 23.84 points lower than the March, 2015 close of 1524,
resulting in a 1.56% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 was 712 in June
of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 1500.19 represents a 111% gain since June,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P MidCap 400 back to
September, 1991. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Standard & Poor's
400. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the S&P 400 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1991 - 2015: S&P 400 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 11% / 40th 64% / 12% / -43%
2 Year 29% / 54th 115% / 25% / -46%
4 Year 48% / 44th 145% / 54% / -33%
8 Year 72% / 27th 281% / 118% / -10%
16 Year 282% / 19th 592% / 343% / 189%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the S&P 400 Index returned 29%.
That period scored in the 54th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
54% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1991. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1991 returned 115%. The worst returned -46%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 25%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 400 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 273
2 Year: 261
4 Year: 237
8 Year: 189
16 Year: 93
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2015; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P MidCap 400 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month
is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & |
Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index for the target
|Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.|
|S&P 400 Stock Market Index Forecast
S&P 400 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P 400 Stock Index
|S&P 400 Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.