Market Commentary 19225
April, 2015 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 600 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600
Stock Index of 793. The table shows a HDTFA of 129 which suggests that the
May, 2016 S&P SmallCap 600 could easily close anywhere between 922 and
663. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability
that the S&P SmallCap 600 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss
benchmarks at a point in time ten years in the future. For example, look at the
top line of the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 19% that the S&P 600 Index will be down at least
20% in 10 years (April, 2025 close compared to April, 2015 close).
Down at least 20% 19%
Down at least 10% 23%
Up at least 10% 59%
Up at least 20% 44%
Up at least 30% 31%
Up at least 40% 23%
Up at least 50% 13%
Up at least 100% NS
Up at least 150% NS
Up at least 200% NS
NS - Not Significant
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P SmallCap 600 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and
the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard
& Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is
updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial
movements in the S&P SmallCap 600. The latest ranking of the S&P 600 Index
is 1. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock
market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The index with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ
100. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received the
worst rank (1) was 4/2015, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 703. The last time
that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was
9/2014, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 635. Last month's close for the
Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
All Time High 720 (March, 2015)
April, 2015 close 703
Decline From All Time High 2%
10 Year Return 132%
5 Year Low 322 (August, 2010)
Gain From 5 Year Low 118%
The highest all time monthly close in the S&P 600 Index was 720 in March, of
2015. The April, 2015 close was 703. That's a decline of 17 points or 2% below
the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index all time high. The S&P 600
Index is up 132% over the last 10 years. It has gained 8% over the last 12
The April close was 17.23 points lower than the March, 2015 close of 720,
resulting in a 2.39% decline for April.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index was
322 in August of 2010. The April, 2015 close at 702.97 represents a 118% gain
since August, 2010.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P SmallCap 600 back to
September, 1995. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P 600 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links
under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another
opens our longest term graph on the S&P 600 Index. Just one glance at our
long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
ROLLING RETURNS, 1995 - 2015: S&P 600 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 8% / 38th 62% / 11% / -43%
2 Year 33% / 63rd 111% / 23% / -49%
4 Year 54% / 62nd 148% / 43% / -38%
8 Year 67% / 32nd 156% / 86% / -7%
16 Year 308% / 88th 347% / 262% / 200%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the S&P 600 Index returned 33%.
That period scored in the 63rd percentile, meaning that it scored better than
63% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1995. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1995 returned 111%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 23%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 600 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 225
2 Year: 213
4 Year: 189
8 Year: 141
16 Year: 45
Dividends are not included.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2015; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P SmallCap 600 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index - 5 Year History
|Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & |
Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index for the target
|Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.|
|S&P 600 Stock Market Index Forecast
S&P 600 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P 600 Stock Index
|S&P 600: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.