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Market Commentary  19223
April, 2015 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Straits Times Stock Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Straits Times Index of 3932.
The table shows a HDTFA of 662 which suggests that the May, 2016 Straits
Times Singapore Index could easily close anywhere between 4595 and 3270.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
A primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided free of charge in
this site with a time delay (archived pages). The current (up to date) primary
trend forecast is provided to subscribers only. Artificial Intelligence is used to
forecast major turning points in the broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is
either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a Bear Market Signal (down). This
mathematical system performed very well in a one hundred year backtest and
also in real time since going live in 2005. To get the forecast signal for the
broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (April, 2025
close compared to April, 2015 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was
used to calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with
the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P
SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          3862 (October, 2007)
April, 2015 close                    3487
Decline From All Time High     10%
10 Year Return                       61%
5 Year Low                             2646 (December, 2011)
Gain From 5 Year Low            32%

The highest all time monthly close in the Straits Times was 3862 in October, of
2007. The April, 2015 close was 3487. That's a decline of 375 points or 10%
below the Straits Times Stock Index all time high.  The Straits Times Stock Index
is up 61% over the last 10 years. It has gained 7% over the last 12 months.

The April close was 40.38 points higher than the March, 2015 close of 3447,
resulting in a 1.17% rise in April.

The 5 year market low for the Straits Times Index was 2646 in December of
2011. The April, 2015 close at 3487.39 represents a 32% gain since
December, 2011.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Straits Times Singapore
Index back to April, 1988. All calculations are based on the monthly market
close in the Straits Times, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Straits Times Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Straits Times Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the Straits Times Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1988 - 2015: Straits Times Stock Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
  1 Year                     7% / 51st                    126% / 8% / -54%
  2 Year                     4% / 38th                    138% / 14% / -56%
  4 Year                     10% / 42nd                  167% / 24% / -60%
  8 Year                     3% / 27th                    181% / 40% / -40%
  16 Year                   89% / 63rd                  260% / 78% / -2%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (5/2013 - 4/2015), the Straits Times Stock Index
returned 4%. That period scored in the 38th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 38% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1988. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1988 returned 138%. The worst returned -56%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 14%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Straits Times Stock Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 314
2 Year: 302
4 Year: 278
8 Year: 230
16 Year: 134

Dividends are not included.











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4800
1800
2400
Straits Times Stock Index Forecast (Singapore)
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the Straits
Times Stock Index for the target month
indicated.
May 2016
3932
662
Updated Wednesday, May 27, 2015.
1200
Monthly close for the Straits Times Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
4200
3600
3000
Straits Times Stock Index - 5 Year History
Straits Times Stock Forecast
Straits Times Stock Index: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
1.28
0.74
-0.13
April
May
June
2.68
-0.35
-0.12
July
Aug
Sept
1.72
-2.45
-0.03
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.27
0.63
1.88
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Straits Times Index
Straits Times Index Stock Market Forecast
1/10
1/2011
1/2012
1/2013
1/2014
1/2015
1/2016
1/17